Jammu and Kashmir's political landscape is heating up as parties prepare for the upcoming Rajya Sabha elections, scheduled for October 24. The ruling National Conference (NC) has announced its intention to contest all four Rajya Sabha seats in the Union Territory. This decision has created friction with its ally, the Congress party, which is vying for at least one seat. These elections are particularly significant, marking the first major political test for alliances formed after the 2024 assembly polls.
The Rajya Sabha seats have been vacant since February 2021, primarily due to the absence of an electoral college resulting from the lack of a Jammu and Kashmir assembly. Following the 2024 Union Territory assembly election, political parties have been pushing for these polls.
The NC-Congress alliance holds a significant position with a combined strength of 53 votes in the 90-member house. This gives them an advantage over other parties, including the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP, with 28 legislators, is likely to win one seat. The remaining votes are distributed among smaller parties, including the Peoples Democratic Party, Peoples Conference, CPI (M), Awami Ittehad Party and Aam Aadmi Party, along with independent legislators.
National Conference Chief Spokesperson Tanvir Sadiq said that the party is in a strong position and is confident of winning three of the four seats. He added that the final decision on whether to contest all four seats will be made by the party leadership after further consultations. Sadiq also acknowledged the Congress party's demand for a seat, stating that while such demands are natural, the party's decisions would be based on "political realities and numerical strength". He hinted at possible political maneuvering, stating that the party remains alert to any attempts at inducements or shifting loyalties during the elections.
Congress is keen on securing a seat in the Rajya Sabha and is expected to discuss the matter with the National Conference. Digvijay Singh, a senior Congress leader, is expected to lead these discussions with NC leaders, including Dr. Farooq Abdullah and Chief Minister Omar Abdullah. The Congress party is open to the support of other parties besides the National Conference (NC) for the polls, which will be held on October 26.
Meanwhile, the BJP is also strategizing for the elections. The party held a core group meeting to discuss potential candidates and its approach to the polls. BJP leaders will be weighing whether to field candidates on all seats or reserve slots for friendly independents or smaller allies. BJP spokesperson Sunil Sethi stated that they will field three candidates.
These Rajya Sabha elections will be conducted through three separate elections, as required by law, due to the seats originally being part of three different biennial cycles. Two members retired on February 15, 2021, while two others retired on February 10, 2021.
The outcome of the fourth Rajya Sabha seat is expected to be particularly significant, potentially reflecting the level of understanding among parties and testing the strength of alliances within the opposition bloc.
