Bihar, a state often described as India's political heartland, is gearing up for its next assembly elections in November 2025. The outcome of this election will not only determine the state's governance but also significantly impact the political trajectories of key players: Nitish Kumar, Tejashwi Yadav, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Rahul Gandhi.
For Nitish Kumar, the current Chief Minister of Bihar, this election is critical. After nearly two decades in power, he faces questions about his age, health, and ability to effectively govern. Although he remains a strong contender for CM, anti-incumbency sentiments may work against him. This election will determine whether he secures another term or if it is time for him to retire. It is equally significant for the Janata Dal (United)'s (JD(U)) survival as a major force in Bihar. The results will decide whether Nitish's party maintains its independent clout or is relegated to a secondary role behind its ally, the BJP. Once known for his governance reforms and social welfare programs, Nitish has earned the nickname "Paltu Ram" for his dramatic alliance shifts.
Tejashwi Yadav, the leader of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and son of Lalu Prasad Yadav, sees the 2025 elections as a pivotal test of his leadership. Having served as Nitish Kumar's deputy in the past and currently holding the position of Leader of the Opposition, this election may be his best chance yet to become Chief Minister. In the 2020 elections, under his leadership, the RJD won the most seats, positioning him as the primary face of the opposition. The Mahagathbandhan's vote share in 2020 narrowly lagged behind the NDA. Managing coalition friction and appealing to a broad base, especially the youth and non-Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBCs), remains a critical challenge for him. This election will test his ability to withstand the NDA's political machinery, carry forward his father's legacy, and present himself as a pro-development alternative to Nitish Kumar.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP also have much at stake in Bihar. With Nitish Kumar possibly becoming less of a campaigning force, Modi will need to compensate. The BJP, which has two deputy CMs in Samrat Choudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha, is the largest party in the state. In 2020, the BJP came close to becoming the single largest party in the house, and it will want to improve on that. The BJP hopes to expand its influence by leveraging the NDA's governance record. However, overemphasizing Hindutva may alienate Muslim voters and other minority groups.
For Rahul Gandhi and the Indian National Congress, the Bihar election presents an opportunity to revive the party in a state where it once held sway. As part of the INDIA bloc, Rahul Gandhi aims to consolidate anti-NDA votes and strengthen the opposition front. His active involvement in the campaign is designed to increase Congress's influence in Bihar.
Several other factors could influence the election's outcome. Prashant Kishor, a former poll strategist, is entering the political arena with his Jan Suraaj Party and says his party will contest all 243 seats. Chirag Paswan of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), now a central minister and ally of the BJP, hopes to play a kingmaker role. Caste dynamics, particularly the Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) vote, will also play a crucial role.
The Bihar Assembly elections are poised to be a high-stakes contest with significant implications for the state and national political landscape.
