Several factors have influenced the Indian stock market overnight, with Gift Nifty, India-US trade talks, and gold prices being key among them. Here's a breakdown of eight significant changes:
1. GIFT Nifty Trends
Early indicators suggest a tepid start for Indian markets. The GIFT Nifty, a derivative contract of the Nifty 50 traded on the NSE International Exchange (NSE IX) in Gandhinagar, was trading flat but marginally lower. As of October 8, 2025, the GIFT Nifty was around 25212, a discount of approximately 13 points from the Nifty futures' previous close, implying a flat opening for the Indian benchmark index. Previously known as SGX Nifty, it is used by traders to speculate on the Nifty 50 index and hedge funds to strategically hedge their exposure to the Indian stock market.
2. India-US Trade Talks
Ongoing discussions between India and the United States for a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) continue, with possibilities of meeting the November 2025 deadline. Union Minister Piyush Goyal has indicated constant dialogue at various levels, though the US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the timing and location of future talks. India is also pursuing a Free Trade Agreement with the European Union, aiming for completion by the end of the year. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has emphasized the need for any trade understanding to respect India's "red lines," particularly concerning the interests of farmers, small-scale industries, and fishermen. The BTA aims to more than double the bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 from the current $191 billion.
3. US Market Performance
Overnight Wall Street performance has been mixed. For example, on October 6, 2025, the US stock market ended mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging while the Nasdaq Composite finished lower. Investors are closely watching the US FOMC meeting minutes and developments around the US government shutdown.
4. Asian Market Cues
Asian markets have generally traded higher. Japan's benchmark index reached a record high after the country's ruling party elected Sanae Takaichi as its new leader.
5. Gold Price Movements
Gold prices are influenced by factors such as economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and central bank policies. Spot gold was trading higher at $3,900.40 per ounce, and US gold futures increased to $3,926.80. Rising gold prices can impact jewellery buyers, gold loans and investments, and trade balance. Some analysts anticipate gold prices to maintain a bullish trend, supported by safe-haven demand and geopolitical factors.
6. US Economic Data
The ongoing US government shutdown has delayed the release of important economic data, including the September employment report. The absence of these indicators, combined with anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate reductions, has increased the appeal of gold.
7. Currencies
Currency movements also play a crucial role. The US dollar's strength affects the Japanese yen and the European currency. A weaker rupee can further drive up gold prices in India.
8. Geopolitical Factors
Geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Hamas conflict, continue to be significant market triggers. Negotiations for a ceasefire are underway, raising hopes.
These factors collectively contribute to the dynamics of the Indian stock market, influencing investor sentiment and market movements.
