According to a recent analysis, "crowd FUD" (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) may be the best indicator of when to buy Bitcoin. This contrarian investment strategy suggests that periods of widespread fear and negativity among retail investors often precede significant price rebounds.
Brian Q, an analyst at on-chain analytics platform Santiment, noted that "retail's emotions often dictate that Bitcoin's and altcoins' prices are about to do the opposite". Santiment's analysis tracks social sentiment to identify moments of extreme fear or greed, specifically by monitoring mentions of very high or low price targets on social media. The firm visualizes this data with blue bars representing mentions of much lower price targets and red bars representing mentions of higher, ambitious levels. The logic is that when the crowd becomes fearful and expects deeper drops, it's usually an optimal time to buy.
This pattern has been observed several times this year. According to Santiment, significant market downturns triggered by events such as US President Trump's tariffs against China, tensions in the Middle East, and concerns about the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy have all been followed by price increases as "smart traders" capitalized on the panic. During these periods, retail investors often overreact to news, creating buying opportunities for those with a longer-term perspective.
Santiment's data indicated that during the latest wave of FUD, crypto discussions increasingly focused on Trump's trade stance, with retail investors displaying their "highest negativity level all year". However, the analyst noted that retail investors often return to the market quickly once they realize the news was overblown, benefiting those who bought the dip. This "all too common pattern in 2025" sees retail investors shaken out by fear, only to jump back in after the fear-inducing topic is confirmed to have been overblown or inconsequential.
Other analysts concur that monitoring crowd psychology can be a valuable tool for traders. Zach Rector, an analyst, has stressed that a cool head and patience are essential, and that periods of heightened anxiety often precede impactful market shifts. OneSafe Blog noted that "past market movements demonstrate that such atmosphere shocking FUD can precede remarkable bullish reversals".
However, it's important to note that sentiment is not the only factor influencing Bitcoin's price. Technical analysis, on-chain metrics, and macroeconomic conditions also play a significant role.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading above $115,000, holding strong above a key weekly trendline that signals renewed bullish momentum. Some analysts project a potential rise toward $180,000 by the end of 2025, driven by growing institutional adoption, continued ETF inflows, and historically strong patterns following liquidity expansions. Other forecasts suggest Bitcoin could trade between $115,188 and $126,334 within the next week.
While a contrarian approach of buying when there's "crowd FUD" can be profitable, it's crucial to combine it with other forms of analysis and to manage risk appropriately.
