In a decisive World Cup qualifier, Ukraine and Iceland are set to clash on November 16, 2025, in a match that will determine which team advances to the playoffs. With both teams level on seven points in Group D, the stakes couldn't be higher. Iceland currently holds a slight advantage due to a superior goal difference, meaning a draw would be enough to secure their playoff spot, while Ukraine needs a win to keep their World Cup dreams alive.
How to Watch
The Ukraine vs. Iceland match will be held at the Polish Army Stadium in Warsaw. For viewers in the United States, the game will be available on Fubo TV, with live streaming options via Fubo Sports Network. ViX and Tubi will also offer streaming, though subscriptions or logins may be required.
Odds and Predictions
Bookmakers are favoring Ukraine to win the match. Oddschecker lists Ukraine at 8/11, while Iceland is at 9/2, and a draw is at 11/4. Football Whispers gives Ukraine a 58.8% probability of winning, compared to Iceland's 20.8%.
Predictions for the match vary, with some expecting a high-scoring affair and others anticipating a tight, low-scoring game. Sportsgambler suggests betting on both teams to score, while Betfred Insights predicts Ukraine to edge a low-scoring tie. A correct score prediction from Football Whispers is a 2-2 draw.
World Cup Qualifying Context
Ukraine is third in Group D, and Iceland is second. France has already secured their spot, leaving Ukraine and Iceland to battle for the playoff. Ukraine suffered a crushing 4-0 defeat to France in their previous match, while Iceland is coming off a 2-1 victory against Azerbaijan.
Ukraine needs to forget the performance against France. The team ended the match with 0.04 xG through a single shot and 29% possession, while the scoreline could have easily been much worse than the 4-0. On the other end, Iceland's routine win over Azerbaijan pushed them over Ukraine in the standings, and even a draw would send them up, as their goal difference is superior. But while Iceland have impressed with their output in attack lately, their defence has been the complete opposite.
Team News and Potential Lineups
Potential alterations to the Ukraine team are possible after the defeat against France. Ilya Zabarnyi and Yehor Yarmoliuk are expected to retain their spots in the starting XI. Iceland is likely to stick with the center-back pairing of Daniel Gretarsson and Ignason after keeping a clean sheet in Azerbaijan.
Historical Context
Ukraine and Iceland have played four times since 2015, including three World Cup qualifying matches and one Euro qualifying match. Ukraine has a slight lead in the head-to-head record with two wins, both of which occurred in their most recent encounters. Iceland has one victory, and one match was drawn. The average number of goals scored per game during that spell was 3.75. In their most recent encounter, Ukraine won 5-3 in Reykjavik.
Final Thoughts
This match is pivotal for both Ukraine and Iceland. The victor secures a playoff berth, keeping their World Cup dreams alive, while the loser walks away empty-handed. Expect both teams to amp up the intensity. Serhiy Rebrov, head coach of the Ukrainian national team, stressed that only a victory in this game will allow his team to continue qualifying in the European World Cup playoffs.
