Tensions between Pakistan and India have escalated following a recent attack on tourists in Kashmir, with both countries trading accusations and taking retaliatory measures. Pakistan has strongly asserted that India is to blame for the potential escalation in the region, a claim arising from a series of events following the April 22nd attack in Pahalgam that resulted in the death of 26 people.
In the aftermath of the attack, India was quick to accuse Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism, a charge that Pakistan vehemently denies, calling it baseless. This mutual blame game is not new, reflecting a long-standing strategic paralysis and an inability to address the root causes of the conflict. The core issue remains the disputed region of Kashmir, a highly militarized zone divided between India and Pakistan since their independence in 1947. Both countries claim the region in full but administer it in parts, leading to three major wars and continuous skirmishes.
Pakistan has responded to India's accusations and actions with a series of retaliatory diplomatic measures. These include the suspension of all visas issued to Indian nationals, with the exception of Sikh religious pilgrims, and the cancellation of existing visas. Furthermore, Pakistan has warned that any threat to its sovereignty and the security of its people would be met with strict reciprocal measures.
Adding to the escalating tensions, India has reportedly suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, a pact that shares water between the two countries. Pakistan fears that India might restrict its access to water, which would severely affect its agricultural production. Some Pakistani officials have even accused India of "fighting a low-intensity war".
Recent developments include India launching missile strikes inside Pakistani territory, targeting what it claims are terrorist training camps in nine locations. Pakistan has condemned these strikes, stating that they constitute an "act of war" and asserting its right to respond. There are also claims from Pakistan that its air force shot down Indian military jets. These attacks, which India calls "Operation Sindoor," were a response to the April 22nd attack in Pahalgam.
Experts suggest that the current conflict is at level five on Herman Kahn's escalation ladder, which is a "show of force," where military displays act as a substitute for actual violence. The critical question is whether either country will escalate further or if external pressures and rational perspectives can de-escalate the situation. Some analysts believe that domestic pressure in India might lead to a limited reprisal, such as special forces raids or airstrikes, to appease voters.
The situation is further complicated by the presence of nuclear weapons in both countries. This adds a dangerous dimension to the conflict, with the potential for catastrophic consequences. Despite the heightened tensions, there are also signs of restraint, with both countries possibly recognizing the need to avoid a full-blown war. Diplomatic channels, including back-channel communications, are reportedly still open.
The people of Kashmir are caught in the middle of this escalating conflict. They have faced harassment and physical assaults in parts of Indian-administered Kashmir, allegedly in retaliation for the Pahalgam attack. These incidents, along with decades of political repression and securitized control in the region, highlight the suffering of ordinary Kashmiris.
The coming days will be crucial in determining whether the leaders in New Delhi and Islamabad will choose to escalate further or step back towards stability and peace. The situation remains volatile, and the consequences of miscalculation could be severe.
