Following the recent escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan in April and May of 2025, former U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly asserted his involvement in de-escalating the conflict, stating that "the level of anger between India and Pakistan was not a good thing". The crisis, triggered by a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, that killed 27 people, mostly tourists, on April 22, 2025, quickly spiraled into a multidomain conflict involving airstrikes, missile exchanges, drone warfare, and cyber operations.
Trump has claimed that he "helped settle the problem" between the two nations, suggesting that his administration used trade as leverage to encourage de-escalation. He stated that he encouraged both countries to "do trade instead of war," and that this message was well-received. Trump has also alluded to the possibility of a nuclear exchange between the two countries if the conflict had continued to escalate. He remarked that the situation "looked like it was really going to be escalating out of control".
However, India has refuted Trump's claims of direct mediation, asserting that the ceasefire was a result of direct talks between the Director Generals of Military Operations (DGMOs) of India and Pakistan. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar emphasized that India's policy remains that relations and dealings with Pakistan will be strictly bilateral, with no room for third-party interference. This stance aligns with India's long-standing position on the Kashmir issue, which it considers a bilateral matter.
Despite India's denial of direct mediation, the U.S. Department of State has lauded Trump as a "peacemaker" for his efforts to encourage de-escalation. Some analysts suggest that the Trump administration's actions, while perhaps not direct mediation, echoed the role played by previous U.S. administrations in managing tensions between India and Pakistan.
The 2025 crisis underscored the fragility of deterrence and the inadequacy of existing escalation control mechanisms in a nuclearized environment. The conflict involved unprecedented events, such as the first-ever jet-era dogfight between two nuclear-armed states, and highlighted the increasing normalization of limited military action under the shadow of nuclear deterrence. While the India-Pakistan Agreement on the Prohibition of Attack against Nuclear Facilities remained intact, the crisis served as a stark reminder that nuclear deterrence does not guarantee strategic stability.
The ceasefire, which took effect on May 10, 2025, has been shaky, with reports of cross-border violations. Punitive non-military actions, such as the suspension of visa services and the closure of airspace, remain in place. Most significantly, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) remains in abeyance after India suspended the agreement. Experts warn that without meaningful political dialogue, the risk of renewed hostilities remains high. The last time the two countries engaged in substantive peace talks was the Composite Dialogue process that came to a halt following the Mumbai terrorist attacks in 2008.
