Mumbai's political landscape is heating up as the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections approach, likely to be held in October or November 2025. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to be in a strong position, but the legacy of the Thackeray family continues to play a significant role, keeping the Shiv Sena factions in the fight for control of India's richest civic body. Several factors, including potential alliances, voter demographics, and recent political developments, are shaping the poll mood in Mumbai.

The BJP is aiming for a majority in the BMC, potentially contesting up to 150 of the 227 seats. Internal surveys suggest the party enjoys substantial public support in Mumbai, fueled by the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, as well as their performance in the last state assembly elections. The BJP's confidence is also bolstered by the perceived waning influence of Uddhav Thackeray following the split in the Shiv Sena in 2022, which saw a large number of corporators defect to the Eknath Shinde faction. Even a potential alliance between Uddhav Thackeray and his cousin, Raj Thackeray, is unlikely to significantly dent the BJP's prospects, according to party insiders. The BJP's traditional voter base, comprising North Indians and Gujarati-Marwaris, remains largely intact.

However, the Thackeray legacy cannot be discounted. The BMC has long been a stronghold for the Shiv Sena, serving as a foundation for the party's growth and influence in Maharashtra. For Uddhav Thackeray, the upcoming elections are crucial for reclaiming his leadership position and asserting his claim as the true heir to Bal Thackeray's legacy. Despite the setbacks and defections, the Shiv Sena (UBT) is gearing up for a tough fight, focusing on local issues such as water supply, property tax, and the Dharavi Redevelopment Project. The party is also likely to emphasize the "Marathi manoos" (Marathi-speaking people) and their rights in Mumbai, a strategy that has yielded positive results in the past.

Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, aligned with the BJP in the Mahayuti alliance, also aims to secure control of the BMC. However, the BJP's aggressive seat demands have caused concern within the Shinde camp, potentially disrupting their plans for the civic elections. The Shinde faction may face challenges in Marathi-dominated areas of South and South-Central Mumbai, where the Thackeray legacy still holds considerable sway.

Adding another layer of complexity, Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) is considering an alliance with the BJP, further intensifying the competition. Such an alliance could pose a significant challenge to Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT), particularly if it consolidates Marathi votes. However, the MNS's influence is currently seen as limited, and any potential alliance would need to overcome past differences and negotiate a mutually beneficial seat-sharing arrangement.

Other political parties, including the Congress and the Samajwadi Party (SP), have also decided to contest the BMC elections independently. The Congress leadership believes that going solo is necessary to safeguard the party's organizational interests, which have been declining in recent years. The SP aims to field candidates for a significant number of seats, potentially impacting the Mahavikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance.

Several factors could influence the outcome of the BMC elections, including ward delimitation disputes, OBC reservations, and the appointment of a State Election Commissioner. The Supreme Court has directed the Maharashtra State Election Commission to announce local body elections within four months, but pending court cases and bureaucratic hurdles could cause further delays.

In conclusion, the Mumbai BMC elections promise to be a closely contested battle, with the BJP currently appearing to have an edge. However, the Thackeray legacy remains a potent force, and the Shiv Sena factions will fight hard to maintain their influence in the city. The outcome of the elections will not only determine the future of Mumbai's civic governance but also have significant implications for the political landscape of Maharashtra.