According to the latest report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India is maintaining a nuclear edge over Pakistan, possessing a larger arsenal and making advancements in its nuclear delivery systems. The SIPRI Yearbook 2025 highlights a concerning global trend of increasing nuclear arsenals and modernization programs amidst weakened arms control frameworks.
India's nuclear arsenal is estimated to have grown from 172 warheads in 2024 to approximately 180 in 2025. This increase, though marginal, signifies a shift in the regional balance of power, with India surpassing Pakistan in nuclear stockpile size for the first time in 25 years. Moreover, India is actively developing new types of nuclear delivery systems, including 'canisterised' missiles, which enable quicker deployment and the potential to keep warheads mated to missiles even during peacetime. These systems may also eventually be capable of carrying multiple warheads, significantly enhancing India's strategic posture.
A key development in India's nuclear program is the advancement and deployment of Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology. In March 2024, India conducted a successful test of its MIRV capability using the Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), capable of reaching targets across Asia and into parts of Europe. The Agni-V, with a range exceeding 7,000 kilometers, can now deploy multiple warheads at different targets, complicating enemy defense strategies and enhancing India's deterrence.
India's nuclear doctrine is based on "credible minimum deterrence" and a "no-first-use" (NFU) policy. The NFU policy means that India will only use nuclear weapons in retaliation against a nuclear attack on Indian territory or forces. However, this policy has been qualified to include retaliation against a biological or chemical weapons attack on India or its forces anywhere. To ensure a credible second-strike capability, India has developed a nuclear triad, consisting of land-based missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and aircraft-delivered weapons. The nuclear-powered submarine INS Arihant provides a secure and invulnerable platform for launching SLBMs, enhancing India's ability to retaliate even after absorbing a first strike.
Pakistan, on the other hand, maintains a doctrine of "minimum credible deterrence" without a no-first-use policy. As of 2025, Pakistan is estimated to have a stockpile of around 170 warheads. Pakistan is actively developing its nuclear weapons program and is projected to increase its arsenal in the coming years. Like India, Pakistan is also working towards establishing a sea-based deterrent.
The SIPRI report notes that a brief armed conflict between India and Pakistan in early 2025 highlighted the risks of escalation in the region. The combination of strikes on nuclear-related military infrastructure and third-party disinformation raised concerns about a conventional conflict potentially escalating into a nuclear crisis.
The global context of nuclear weapons is also changing rapidly. According to SIPRI, nearly all nine nuclear-armed states are modernizing their arsenals, with China experiencing the most rapid growth. As of January 2025, China possesses over 600 warheads and is expanding its arsenal faster than any other nation. This build-up is contributing to a new nuclear arms race, with the risk of increased global instability.
India's continued development of its nuclear capabilities is driven by a need to maintain a credible deterrent against both Pakistan and China. While India maintains a no-first-use policy, the evolving security landscape and the actions of its neighbors necessitate a strong and reliable nuclear force. The development of MIRV technology and the deployment of canisterised missiles are significant steps in enhancing India's nuclear deterrence and ensuring its ability to respond to any potential threat. However, these developments also contribute to the ongoing arms race in the region and underscore the importance of maintaining open communication channels and working towards regional stability.
