The Ipsos Populism Report 2025 reveals a significant global trend: a majority of citizens, 59% across 31 countries, express support for a strong leader willing to break the rules. This sentiment reflects a broader sense of societal decline and distrust in traditional institutions, but also shows a nuanced shift in some countries where political changes have occurred. The report, the sixth edition tracking global attitudes toward populism, highlights a growing pessimism, with 57% of citizens believing their country is in decline and 56% feeling that society is broken. This perception is particularly strong in established Western democracies like the UK, the US, and France, but it also resonates in the Global South.
Several factors contribute to this populist surge. Economic discontent remains a primary driver, even as inflation recedes from recent highs. Many individuals feel left behind and exposed to financial insecurity, exacerbated by economic and trade policies. A significant gap exists between elites and the general population, with 68% believing that the main divide in society is between ordinary citizens and the political and economic elite. Furthermore, 62% feel that experts don't understand their lives. Opposition to immigration is another key element, with 44% believing their country would be stronger if immigration stopped, and 60% agreeing that employers should prioritize hiring citizens over immigrants when jobs are scarce.
While the global average shows strong support for a rule-breaking leader, there are regional variations. Countries like Brazil (58%) and South Korea (75%), where recent presidential elections focused on this issue, show high agreement levels. However, Germany, while exhibiting a high level of concern about societal breakdown (77%), is the least likely to support a leader who disregards established rules (24%). This suggests that while pessimism is widespread, the appetite for radical solutions varies across nations.
Interestingly, the report also identifies a contradiction in economic expectations. A majority (57%) reject increased taxes to finance additional public spending, yet they support increased spending on public services. This "cakeism," as it's sometimes called, highlights the complexities of public opinion and the challenges for policymakers in addressing populist demands.
In India, the Ipsos report indicates some positive trends. While 59% of Indians agree that the country needs a strong leader willing to break the rules, this represents a 14% decline from 2023. This suggests that current leadership may be perceived as fulfilling these attributes, leading to a decrease in demand for such qualities. Moreover, fewer Indians now believe that the system is rigged or that experts don't understand their lives, indicating a potential improvement in public trust and satisfaction.
The rise in populism and support for leaders willing to bend the rules raises concerns about the future of democracy. Some analysts caution against undermining the rule of law and checks and balances in the pursuit of popular will. Initiatives like Project 2025 in the US, which aims to consolidate executive power and replace merit-based civil servants with political loyalists, are viewed by critics as a threat to democratic institutions and a step towards autocracy. The question of how democracies should respond to extremist movements and whether constitutional safeguards should be used to limit participation remains a subject of debate. Some argue that competitors should only be challenged using democratic means if they adhere to democratic principles, while others believe that constitutions should actively defend against subversion.
