The recent launch and subsequent inflows into spot Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States have been undeniably impressive, but a deeper dive into Ether futures data suggests that traders are approaching the market with a degree of caution. While the ETF market demonstrates strong buy-side demand, derivatives data reveals a more nuanced picture, with professional traders seemingly hesitant to embrace a fully bullish outlook.
Spot Ethereum ETFs have crossed the $4 billion mark in cumulative net inflows as of June 23, 2025, just eleven months after their market debut on July 23, 2024. The pace of accumulation has been accelerating, with the latest $1 billion inflow achieved in a mere 15 trading days. BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) is leading the charge, with $5.3 billion in gross inflows, followed by Fidelity's FETH ($1.65 billion) and Bitwise's ETHW ($346 million). Grayscale's legacy ETHE trust has experienced $4.28 billion in outflows since its conversion to an ETF, but these redemptions have slowed, allowing overall market inflows to surge.
Several factors contribute to the strong ETF inflows. Lower management fees offered by ETHA and FETH (0.25%) compared to ETHE (2.5%) are attracting cost-conscious investors. A rebound in ETH's price relative to Bitcoin and clearer IRS guidance on staking income within grantor-trust ETFs have also boosted investor confidence. Furthermore, multi-asset allocators are increasingly treating ETH as a portfolio extension rather than a standalone asset, driving larger rebalancing orders.
Despite these positive signals from the ETF market, Ether futures data reveals a more cautious sentiment among traders. Ether's price has struggled to break above $2,800, and derivatives data indicate reduced demand for leveraged bullish bets. The lack of strong bullish leverage demand could suggest reduced confidence, especially as other altcoins may soon gain their own ETFs, including Solana, Litecoin, Polkadot, and XRP.
In neutral markets, ETH monthly futures typically trade at a 5% to 10% annualized premium to account for the extended settlement period. However, this indicator has recently slipped to a bearish level, signaling a lack of interest in leveraged long positions. Typically, bulls pay to maintain their leveraged positions, but the reverse occurs in bearish markets. The current annualized rate shows weak conviction at the current ETH price. This represents a stark contrast from the positive funding rate just two weeks prior.
Several factors could be contributing to this cautious sentiment. Intensifying competition in decentralized application (DApp) activity from other blockchains like Solana and BNB Chain may be weighing on Ether's price outlook. Concerns about the sustainability of Ether's market capitalization relative to its network fees may also be playing a role. While Ethereum leads in total deposits, its fees are only slightly higher than those of Solana, despite a significantly larger total value locked (TVL).
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is analyzing requests to allow “in-kind” creations and redemptions, in addition to evaluating whether those ETFs can offer native staking operations, validating transactions in exchange for ETH rewards. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart noted that the SEC has an intermediary deadline in late August.
In conclusion, while the inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs are undoubtedly a positive development for the cryptocurrency, Ether futures data suggests that traders are exercising caution. Factors such as competition from other blockchains, concerns about network fees, and uncertainty surrounding future regulatory developments may be contributing to this more measured outlook.
