Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has expressed that a Bitcoin price of $1 million in 2026 would not be a cause for celebration but rather an indicator of serious economic distress in the United States. In an interview on the Coin Stories podcast with Natalie Brunell on August 12, 2025, Novogratz stated that such a surge in Bitcoin's value would likely occur only if the U.S. economy were in a "shitty place domestically".
Novogratz emphasized his preference for stability over dramatic price increases, saying he would "rather have a lower Bitcoin price in a more stable United States than the opposite". He explained that severe currency devaluations often negatively impact civil society, and investors tend to seek safe havens like Bitcoin, often referred to as "digital gold," to protect their wealth when a national currency weakens.
Novogratz isn't alone in this sentiment. Crypto analyst Wolf Of All Streets echoed similar concerns in a July 2023 interview with Cointelegraph Magazine, stating, "The faster it happens, the worse the world is".
While some Bitcoin proponents have speculated about the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2026, Novogratz's perspective offers a cautionary counterpoint. For instance, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes predicted in October 2023 that Bitcoin could reach $750,000 to $1 million by that time, and Jan3 founder Samson Mow suggested in June that Bitcoin could hit $1 million even sooner.
Novogratz believes that Bitcoin's valuation is driven by two key factors: adoption and the macroeconomic environment. He noted that persistent fiscal profligacy across major economies acts as a tailwind for Bitcoin. He views today's market as the result of cultural and institutional conversion over the past decade. According to Novogratz, the social consensus around Bitcoin is now self-sustaining. He also pointed to the moment when the CEO of the world's largest asset manager embraced Bitcoin as a turning point, calling it the moment Bitcoin was "blessed" as a real asset.
Novogratz anticipates continued fiscal deterioration, regardless of political promises, which will continue to devalue fiat currencies and boost Bitcoin's scarcity premium. He sees Bitcoin as both a "report card" and a governor on policymaking, with its value increasing as economic stewardship worsens. Although he believes Bitcoin will reach $1 million eventually, he hopes it happens gradually, as a rapid surge would likely indicate domestic or global instability.
Novogratz wants Bitcoin to "stay in its lane" as digital gold and resists efforts to make it all things to all use cases. He believes that the narrative of Bitcoin as digital gold is clear and invites the broadest acceptance from institutions and the public. This clarity has already led to infrastructure developments like spot ETFs and traditional-market rails, which deepen liquidity and reduce friction for allocators.
In addition to his comments on Bitcoin, Novogratz voiced concerns about the U.S.'s ongoing debt issues. He suggested that former US President Donald Trump's decision to bring on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has not yielded the anticipated results. Novogratz also stated that as long as the debt to GDP keeps climbing, Bitcoin prices will keep climbing.
