Bitcoin has been on a rollercoaster ride, currently trading around $107,716 as of today, June 26, 2025. After a significant rally from April lows, the cryptocurrency is approaching its all-time high, hovering around the $112,000 mark. Analysts are weighing in on what needs to happen for Bitcoin to definitively break through this resistance level and potentially reach new price discovery.
Several factors are at play. According to Cointelegraph, a pickup in MVRV (market value to realized value) momentum, profitability, and on-chain activity could be the key to pushing BTC past the $110,000 hurdle. The MVRV ratio, which compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to the realized capitalization, indicates whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued. A rising MVRV momentum suggests that investors are holding Bitcoin for longer periods, reducing selling pressure and potentially driving the price higher. Currently, the MVRV slope is below the overvalued zone, implying there is still room for growth.
Another crucial element is the recovery of spot and on-chain transfer volume. Increased transfer volume signals greater network activity and demand for Bitcoin, which can contribute to a price breakout. Analysts also emphasize the importance of BTC bulls flipping the $108,000-$110,000 range into a new support level. This would demonstrate sustained buying interest and provide a solid foundation for further price appreciation.
Besides technical indicators, market sentiment and external factors also play a significant role. Brave New Coin reports that Bitcoin is currently sitting above $107,000 and looking strong, potentially forming a bull pennant pattern. If this pattern plays out, the implied Bitcoin price target could reach $165,000. Analyst Jelle noted on X that a break above $110,000 could send Bitcoin "a lot higher." Moreover, dwindling exchange flows, indicating reduced supply, could further fuel a price surge.
However, it's important to note that bull pennants are not always reliable, hitting their targets only about 54% of the time. TradingView suggests that a breakdown below the swing support zone, potentially dragging the price down to the $100,000-$95,000 range, remains a possibility. On the other hand, a reversal above the swing support zone and a break of June's swing high could increase the odds of clearing $112,000, potentially leading to a rally towards $120,000 by the end of June.
Geopolitical factors and macroeconomic conditions also influence Bitcoin's price. Escalating tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy have contributed to recent volatility. However, positive developments, such as strong U.S.-China trade progress and continued institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, have provided support.
Overall, for Bitcoin to break the $112,000 barrier and continue its upward trajectory, a confluence of factors needs to align. These include increased MVRV momentum, a recovery in on-chain activity, strong buying support, positive market sentiment, and favorable macroeconomic conditions. While technical analysis provides valuable insights, the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market means that predictions should be taken with caution.
