In an era defined by the assertive presence of both a resurgent United States under President Trump and an increasingly influential China, India finds itself navigating a complex geopolitical landscape. Like a bamboo bending but not breaking in the wind, India is striving to maintain its strategic autonomy and balance its relationships with these two global powers. This balancing act is becoming increasingly difficult.
India's relationship with the United States has experienced both highs and lows. While the two countries share democratic values and a common interest in a free and open Indo-Pacific region, recent developments have introduced friction. President Trump's focus on "onshoring" and his transactional approach to international relations have led to trade disputes and tariffs, with the U.S. recently imposing a 50% tariff on Indian goods. This has been described as potentially the "worst" moment in many years for U.S.-India relations. These tariffs, along with the threat of additional penalties related to India's energy and defense purchases from Russia, have raised concerns in New Delhi. Despite these challenges, the underlying strategic rationale for the U.S.-India partnership remains strong, with both countries viewing China as a principal long-term strategic competitor.
At the same time, India is also working to stabilize its relationship with China. After a period of heightened tensions, particularly following border clashes in 2020, there are signs of a thaw in relations. Prime Minister Modi is planning to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in China, his first visit to the country in over seven years. This visit signals a desire to improve communication and defuse tensions that have hampered business relations. Despite these efforts, India remains wary of China's growing influence and its potential to use multilateral forums like BRICS to promote its own agenda.
India's approach to balancing its relationships with the U.S. and China is rooted in its long-standing commitment to strategic autonomy. This principle allows India to pursue its national interests without aligning itself with any particular power bloc. India's participation in both the Quad, a grouping of major maritime democracies including the U.S., Japan, and Australia, and BRICS, which includes China and Russia, exemplifies this balancing act. By engaging with both groupings, India aims to maintain its options and avoid being forced to choose between the two.
However, this balancing act is becoming increasingly difficult in a fragmented global order. Trump's policies have created uncertainty about the U.S.'s commitment to multilateralism and its reliability as a partner. This has led some in India to believe that closer engagement with China may be necessary to ensure regional stability. At the same time, India is also seeking to deepen its ties with other Western powers and diversify its partnerships.
The coming months will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of India's relationships with the U.S. and China. Modi's visit to China and the upcoming Quad summit in India will provide opportunities for dialogue and cooperation. Whether India can successfully navigate these complex relationships will depend on its ability to maintain its strategic autonomy, promote its economic interests, and contribute to a stable and peaceful Indo-Pacific region. Like a bamboo in the wind, India must remain flexible and resilient in the face of shifting geopolitical currents.
