Donald Trump's approach to international trade, characterized by tariffs and sanctions, has had unintended consequences, particularly in the relationship between the United States, India, and China. Trump's imposition of tariffs on India, ostensibly as punishment for its continued purchase of Russian oil, has not yielded the desired submission from New Delhi. Instead, it appears to have pushed India closer to China, potentially undermining the U.S.'s strategic interests in the region.

The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin, China, highlights this shift. The SCO, while often seen as a collection of contradictions and without binding defense commitments like NATO, carries significant geopolitical weight. The presence of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the summit underscores a potential realignment of power dynamics, signaling a decline in Washington's influence.

Trump's tariff policies towards India are perceived by many in New Delhi as punitive rather than economically rational. The decision to impose a 50% tariff on Indian goods, coupled with an additional 25% secondary tariff, has been viewed as deliberately undermining India's autonomy. This sentiment has resonated across the Indian political spectrum, shaping domestic debates and fostering a sense of national pride and sovereignty.

India's perspective is further complicated by its experience with China, particularly since the 2020 border clashes in Ladakh. While both countries have sought rapprochement, a trust deficit remains. However, the shared threat of U.S. tariffs has seemingly fostered improved relations between New Delhi and Beijing. China may see Trump's trade war as an opportunity to draw India away from U.S.-led political and military blocs like the QUAD.

The situation is also influenced by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Washington's justification for the tariffs, linking them to India's purchase of Russian oil, has been met with skepticism in India. Many Indians point to China's continued status as the largest buyer of Russian oil without facing similar penalties. This perceived double standard has fueled resentment and a sense that India is being unfairly targeted.

Despite the tensions, the U.S. and India share common interests in countering China. However, Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy, prioritizing bilateral gains over a broader multilateral strategy, may be undermining this shared objective. By prioritizing tariffs and sanctions, the U.S. risks alienating a key partner in the region and driving it closer to its rivals.

Trump himself has acknowledged India's offer to reduce tariffs but expressed impatience, stating that it is "getting late". He also reiterated his view that the U.S. conducts "very little business with India, but they do a tremendous amount of business with us" and that India has historically charged high tariffs.

The evolving dynamics between the U.S., India, and China highlight the complexities of international relations and the unintended consequences of protectionist trade policies. Trump's tariff war, intended to pressure India, may instead be pushing it closer to China, potentially reshaping the geopolitical landscape and diminishing U.S. influence in the region.