US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is warning India of "tough times" ahead due to its tariff policies, particularly concerning the import of American corn. This comes amid existing trade tensions between the two nations, exacerbated by India's continued purchase of Russian oil and the United States' imposition of tariffs on Indian goods.

Lutnick, in a recent interview, questioned why India, with its population of 1.4 billion, couldn't buy even a single bushel of U.S. corn. He criticized India's high tariffs on American exports, stating that New Delhi has erected a "wall" against imports while freely selling its products to the U.S.. He implied that India must lower its tariffs to avoid difficulties in doing business with the world's largest consumer market. A bushel of corn is approximately 25.40 kilograms.

These remarks reflect the Trump administration's stance of advocating for reciprocal trade policies. Lutnick conveyed Trump's policy as "Treat us the way we treat you," suggesting that the U.S. seeks to correct perceived trade imbalances. He justified the existing 50% tariffs on Indian exports as a means to rectify years of unfair trade practices.

The U.S. has expressed concerns over India's trade barriers, especially in agriculture and dairy. India's weighted average tariff rate stands at 12%, significantly higher than the 2.2% in the United States. India imposes particularly high tariffs on agricultural goods, automobiles, precious metals, and textiles.

These trade tensions are unfolding against a backdrop of broader geopolitical complexities. The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on all Indian goods, including a 25% penalty for India's purchase of Russian oil, a move Washington argues supports Russia's conflict in Ukraine. India has maintained that its energy procurement is driven by national interest and market dynamics.

Despite these disagreements, efforts are underway to resolve the trade disputes. Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has indicated that the first part of the India-US trade agreement is expected to be finalized by November 2025. These discussions, which began in March 2025, are reportedly progressing in a positive environment. President Trump has also expressed optimism about reaching a successful conclusion to trade negotiations with India.

However, some experts believe that progress on a trade deal is contingent on India ceasing its purchases of Russian oil. The U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo has emphasized this point, highlighting the complex interplay between geopolitics, energy security, and international trade negotiations.

The tariffs are already impacting certain sectors of the Indian economy. For example, India's carpet industry has faced near-total halt in orders from the U.S. due to the tariffs. The industry is heavily dependent on the U.S. market, and manufacturers are struggling to cope with the increased costs.

Some analysts suggest that India's response to the tariffs has been to strengthen domestic demand and diversify its exports. India is also pursuing free trade negotiations with the European Union and engaging with other key markets. The focus has been on skilled human capital and professional mobility in trade negotiations.