While the El Niño weather pattern that often spells weaker monsoons for India has dissipated, its influence may still linger, impacting the upcoming monsoon season. As the country looks ahead to the crucial rains that dictate agricultural output and overall economic stability, scientists are closely monitoring the transition to ENSO-neutral conditions and the potential emergence of La Niña.

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate pattern that originates in the Pacific Ocean and affects weather conditions worldwide. El Niño, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, is often associated with weaker monsoon winds and reduced rainfall in India. Conversely, La Niña, marked by cooler-than-average temperatures in the same region, typically strengthens the monsoon, leading to increased rainfall.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) and other global forecasting agencies predict a high probability of ENSO-neutral conditions prevailing during the monsoon season. This means that neither El Niño nor La Niña is expected to have a significant impact on the monsoon. However, the tail end of El Niño's effects and the potential development of La Niña in the later months introduce an element of uncertainty.

The IMD has maintained 100% accuracy in forecasting the all-India southwest monsoon rainfall in the last four years. The department anticipates a normal monsoon season, which is crucial for India's agricultural sector, as it supports rain-fed farming and replenishes water storage. A normal monsoon is also favorable for controlled inflation.

Despite the forecast of neutral conditions, there's an increasing likelihood of La Niña developing during the post-monsoon season. The US National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center indicated a 71% probability of La Niña developing between October and December 2025. La Niña is often linked to colder-than-average winters in India. While climate change's warming effect may offset some of this, La Niña years are consistently colder than neutral years.

It's important to note that the impacts of natural climate events like El Niño and La Niña are occurring within the broader context of human-induced climate change. Rising global temperatures are exacerbating extreme weather and climate events and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.

The monsoon season is vital for India, and the predictions from the IMD are essential for policymakers. These forecasts translate into economic savings for key sectors like agriculture, energy, and transport, and enable disaster risk preparedness.