The recent signing of a "Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement" between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan has prompted India to carefully assess the implications for its national security and regional stability. The agreement, which stipulates that any aggression against one country will be considered an aggression against both, has raised concerns in New Delhi, despite the country's growing ties with Saudi Arabia.
India's Response and Concerns
The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has acknowledged the development, stating that the government was aware that such an agreement had been under consideration for some time. MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said that India would study the implications of the pact for its national security, as well as for regional and global stability, and reiterated the government's commitment to protecting India's national interests and ensuring comprehensive national security in all domains.
Several concerns have been raised regarding the potential impact of the Saudi-Pakistan defense pact on India. Firstly, the agreement could embolden Pakistan, potentially leading to a harder stance in future crises, whether over Kashmir, terrorism, or water rights. Some analysts fear that Pakistan, with Saudi backing, may adopt a more assertive posture, complicating India's freedom of action in responding to cross-border terrorism.
Secondly, there are concerns that Saudi financial support could strengthen Pakistan's military, either directly or indirectly, through oil subsidies, weapons upgrades, or technology transfers. This could potentially lead to India facing a better-equipped adversary in the future.
Strategic Implications
The Saudi-Pakistan defense pact adds a new dimension to regional security, potentially complicating the balance of power in South Asia. Some experts believe the agreement could draw Saudi Arabia into the volatile India-Pakistan equation. The pact is viewed by some as a quiet strategic windfall for China, presenting an opportunity to deepen its influence with two key allies while potentially sidelining the United States.
India's Balancing Act
India faces a delicate diplomatic balancing act, as it seeks to maintain its strong ties with both Saudi Arabia and Israel, while also managing its long-standing conflict with Pakistan. India relies on Saudi Arabia as its third-largest oil supplier and a key investment partner, and has also developed a deepening military relationship with Israel.
To safeguard its interests, India is likely to pursue a strategy of "quiet hedging," which could include:
The Broader Context
The Saudi-Pakistan defense pact has emerged against the backdrop of evolving geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East and South Asia. The agreement is seen by some as a response to Washington's perceived retrenchment from the region and growing unease among Gulf states regarding the reliability of U.S. security guarantees. By formalizing its alliance with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia may be signaling to Iran, Israel, and the United States that it has alternative anchors of deterrence.
The pact also comes at a time when relations between India and Pakistan have been strained, particularly after the Pahalgam terror attack and India's subsequent counterstrike, Operation Sindoor. While Saudi Arabia condemned the Pahalgam attack, the defense pact with Pakistan could introduce new complexities to the India-Pakistan dynamic.
Despite the defense alignment with Islamabad, a Saudi official has stated that Riyadh's relationship with India remains strong and will continue to grow. India is now the second-largest trading partner for Saudi Arabia, and the two countries have been expanding cooperation across various sectors, including defense.
