Bitcoin's price trajectory is facing a complex interplay of factors, leaving investors and analysts alike pondering how low it might go before potentially rebounding toward the ambitious $100,000 mark. Recent market dynamics have seen Bitcoin (BTC) experience notable volatility, influenced by both internal crypto market forces and external macroeconomic pressures.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading below $108,000, a level breached after a period of profit-taking. This downturn follows a weekend bounce, which subsequently lost momentum, leading to a new weekly low of $107,464. This failed recovery has seemingly shaken investor confidence. Daily trading volume has increased by 25.33% to $85.88 billion, suggesting heightened activity amidst the price decline. Despite the price dip, Bitcoin's dominance has surged, reaching a 60% level.
One significant factor weighing on Bitcoin's price is the unease surrounding U.S. regional banks. Echoing the anxieties of 2023, stress within the regional banking sector has spilled over into the crypto market, contributing to the risk-off sentiment. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) experienced a significant drop, reminiscent of the turmoil following the collapse of SVB in March 2023. This has led to concerns about credit quality and the overall health of the financial sector.
Adding to the downward pressure, data indicates that Bitcoin miners have deposited a substantial 51,000 BTC (worth over $5.5 billion) on exchanges in the past week, the largest outflow since July. Historically, such behavior from miners, who are among Bitcoin's largest holders, has often preceded price weakness.
However, amidst the caution, some analysts suggest that the current correction might present a "contrarian buying window". Bitwise analysts, for example, argue that deep drops in market sentiment often precede rebounds and that the recent correction has been largely driven by external factors. Furthermore, mid-sized wallets have resumed accumulation, indicating strategic buying during the dip.
Technically, Bitcoin's support level around $109,600-$110,000 is crucial, aligning with the 200-day moving average. A break below this level could lead to further testing of lower supports at $107,300 and $105,000. Conversely, a confirmed breakout above the $112,700-$113,000 resistance range could propel BTC toward $114,600 and potentially $120,000.
Looking ahead, predictions for Bitcoin's price remain varied. While some anticipate a potential retest of monthly lows due to decreased investor confidence, others believe an overall market rally could act as a bullish catalyst. Binance users predict that BTC could reach $136,278.51 by 2030. Shorter-term forecasts for 2026 estimate a price of $112,116.67. The Economic Times notes that holding above $109,000 and reclaiming higher levels could lead BTC toward $120,000 or $125,000 in Q4 2025.
Ultimately, whether Bitcoin revisits lower levels or resumes its upward trajectory toward $100,000 depends on a complex interplay of factors. These include the resolution of concerns surrounding regional banks, overall market sentiment, and continued institutional and retail investor accumulation.
