In a recent interview, former CIA officer John Kiriakou cautioned Pakistan against escalating tensions with India, asserting that such provocations are detrimental to Pakistan's own interests. Kiriakou, who has extensive experience in counterterrorism operations, having headed the CIA's counterterrorism efforts in Pakistan, stated firmly that Pakistan stands to gain nothing from a conflict with India, as "the Pakistanis will lose".
Kiriakou's assessment isn't solely based on military strength but also on a broader understanding of the strategic implications. He clarified that his analysis excludes nuclear weapons, focusing instead on a conventional war scenario. He urged Islamabad to recognize that constantly provoking India only harms its own interests.
Recalling the aftermath of the 2008 Mumbai attacks, Kiriakou pointed towards the involvement of Pakistani-supported Kashmiri groups, highlighting Pakistan's role in fostering terrorism in India. He lauded India's measured response to past provocations, including the Parliament attacks and the Mumbai attacks, which the CIA termed as "strategic patience". However, he cautioned that this strategic patience should not be mistaken for weakness.
Kiriakou recounted a time when the CIA believed war between India and Pakistan was imminent following the 2001 Parliament attack, leading to the evacuation of American families from Islamabad. He noted that while the U.S. was preoccupied with Al-Qaeda and Afghanistan, a diplomatic intervention averted the crisis.
Furthermore, Kiriakou touched upon the sensitive issue of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. He claimed that in 2002, while stationed in Pakistan, he was informed that the Pentagon had control over Pakistan's nuclear weapons. He expressed concern over who currently controls Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, citing political instability and the military's influence as factors making the country "dangerously unpredictable". He also mentioned that the U.S. could have taken out Abdul Qadeer Khan, the scientist at the center of Pakistan's nuclear program, if it had followed an Israeli-style policy. However, Khan was allegedly backed by the Saudi government, which asked the United States to leave him alone.
Kiriakou also revealed that the U.S. had provided substantial financial aid to Pakistan, particularly during Pervez Musharraf's rule, in exchange for cooperation. He suggested that while the U.S. sought Musharraf's cooperation, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) continued its terror activities against India.
India has consistently accused Pakistan of harboring terrorists, a claim that Pakistan denies. Tensions remain, with India asserting its right to respond firmly to any act of terrorism and vowing not to succumb to nuclear blackmail. India has, in the past, taken strong action against terror attacks, including surgical strikes and airstrikes on terror launchpads.
