With the crucial COP30 climate summit in Brazil just around the corner, a concerning trend has emerged: only a third of nations have formally submitted their updated climate targets for 2035. These targets, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, are meant to be updated every five years, reflecting increasingly ambitious goals for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The absence of submissions from major GHG emitters like China, the EU, and India casts a shadow over global efforts to combat climate change.

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has released a report assessing the submitted NDCs. While the report indicates a positive trend – a projected 10% decrease in global emissions by 2035 compared to 2019 levels – this is far from the 60% reduction needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement. To keep global warming below 2°C, emissions would need to be cut by at least 35% over the next ten years.

The UNFCCC's assessment included the targets submitted by the United States under the Biden administration, which aimed to cut emissions by 61-66% below 2005 levels by 2035. However, with the return of President Trump, the US is expected to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, casting doubt on the future of these targets.

Despite not yet formally submitting their NDCs, China and the EU have announced their emissions-cutting targets. China, the world's largest emitter, has pledged to cut emissions by 7-10% from peak levels by 2035. While this marks the first time China has committed to an absolute reduction in GHG emissions, including all gases, analysts say it falls short of what is needed to prevent catastrophic climate impacts. The EU has indicated its 2035 target would range between 66% and 72% below 1990 levels. However, the EU has been grappling with internal disagreements about its climate ambitions, and some member states are calling for a delay to the 2035 ban on the sale of new CO2-emitting cars and vans.

India, the world's third-largest climate polluter, did not attend the UN climate summit in New York last month, raising concerns about its commitment to tackling global warming. While India has not yet submitted its 2035 NDC, a recent report suggests that the country could see its coal power emissions peak before 2030 if it meets its 500 GW non-fossil power capacity target.

The slow pace of NDC submissions and the lack of ambition in current targets have drawn criticism from UN officials and climate advocates. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned that the world is "inevitably" heading towards a failure to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C in the short term. Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, emphasized the need for a "major acceleration" in emission reductions and called on countries to "respond and show how we are going to speed up" climate action at COP30.

The upcoming COP30 climate conference in Brazil is seen as a critical opportunity for countries to step up their efforts and deliver more ambitious NDCs. However, with the US expected to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and major emitters like China, the EU, and India yet to submit their 2035 targets, the path to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement remains uncertain.