Bihar Assembly Elections Phase 1: Predictions and Potential Outcomes Based on Ground Realities

The first phase of the Bihar Assembly elections is set to take place on November 6, 2025, encompassing 121 constituencies across 18 districts. Campaigning concluded on Tuesday evening, marking the end of a high-pitched political battle.

Key Players and Contests

The elections will see a contest between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Mahagathbandhan alliance. The NDA includes the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Janata Dal (United), Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM). The Mahagathbandhan comprises the Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), and Left parties CPI, CPI-ML, and CPI(M).

Several key battles are expected in this initial phase. These include: * Raghopur: Tejashwi Yadav (RJD) vs. Satish Kumar (BJP) * Mahua: Tej Pratap Yadav (JJD) vs. Mukesh Raushan (RJD) * Tarapur: Samrat Choudhary (BJP) vs. Arun Shah (RJD) * Alinagar: Maithili Thakur (BJP) vs. Binod Mishra (RJD) * Lakhisarai: Vijay Kumar Sinha (BJP) vs. Suraj Kumar (JSP) * Arrah: Sanjay Singh “Tiger” (BJP) vs. Vijay Kumar Gupta (JSP) * Patna Sahib: Shashant Shekhar (Congress) vs. Ratnesh Kushwaha (BJP)

Campaign Highlights

The campaign saw leaders from both the NDA and Mahagathbandhan making efforts to sway voters. Prime Minister Narendra Modi interacted with BJP women workers, while Chief Minister Nitish Kumar also held meetings. Other prominent campaigners included Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, and Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.

A notable focus has been on women voters, with parties announcing welfare schemes and promises to attract this demographic. The NDA has promoted schemes like the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, while the INDIA bloc has countered with promises like the Mai Bahin Maan Yojana.

Controversies and Concerns

The Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) analysis of candidates' self-sworn affidavits reveals that 32% of the 1,303 candidates contesting in the first phase have declared criminal cases against themselves. Furthermore, 40% are crorepatis, and 27% face serious criminal charges. ADR reports that 91 of the 121 constituencies are "red alert" constituencies, where three or more candidates have declared criminal cases.

Election Commission Preparations

The Election Commission has made security arrangements for the first phase. For the first time, a General Observer will be deployed in each constituency. Webcasting will be conducted at all polling stations to monitor the electoral process closely. District Magistrates and Superintendents of Police have been instructed to maintain zero tolerance towards any violence, and adequate Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) will be deployed.

Looking Ahead

With the campaign concluded, all eyes are now on the polling day. More than 3 crore 75 lakh voters will decide the fate of 1,314 candidates in this phase. The second phase of polling is scheduled for November 11, with vote counting on November 14.

Recent Survey

According to the latest Dainik Bhaskar Phase 1 Opinion Poll, the NDA is projected to lead with 76–78 seats out of 121, while the MGB alliance is estimated to secure 40–42 seats. A VoteVibe survey indicates a tight race, with MGB at 34.7%, NDA at 34.4%, and Jan Suraj at 12.3%.


Written By
Arjun Reddy is an entertainment journalist passionate about exploring the evolving world of Bollywood. With a flair for in-depth interviews and industry insights, he captures the pulse of cinema and celebrity culture. Arjun blends credible reporting with engaging storytelling, bringing readers closer to the people behind the screen. His writing reflects both passion and professionalism.
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