As Bihar heads into assembly elections, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is relying on a strategy that combines a reinforced coalition with the appeal of its welfare programs to maintain its dominance, especially in areas traditionally held by the opposition. The NDA is comprised of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)], Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), and Rashtriya Lok Morcha.
The NDA's campaign strategy hinges on highlighting the development work and welfare schemes implemented over the past decade. These initiatives range from providing basic amenities like toilets and tap water to empowering women through self-help groups and financial inclusion. Cash transfers to 12.5 million women have strengthened the NDA's connection with female voters. The focus on women is a calculated move, as women-focused schemes could translate into significant electoral gains.
The NDA manifesto emphasizes youth empowerment, promising to create 1 crore (10 million) government jobs and employment opportunities. To achieve this, the alliance plans a skill census to transform Bihar into a global skilling hub, along with establishing Mega Skill Centers in every district and Centers of Excellence for sports. The NDA aims to create employment in the private sector through skill development. The manifesto also includes plans for new industrial parks, MSME parks and cottage industries.
A SWOT analysis shows that the NDA's strengths lie in the continued appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, and a balanced caste strategy. Unlike the 2020 elections, there is a lack of strong anti-incumbency sentiment against Nitish Kumar. However, potential weaknesses include concerns about Nitish Kumar's health and potential discontent among smaller allies regarding seat-sharing. Unemployment and migration also remain significant issues for voters.
The opposition, led by Tejashwi Yadav, is banking on anti-incumbency sentiment and support from young and unemployed voters. The "Grand Alliance" includes the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress party, the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) (CPI-ML), the Communist Party of India (CPI), the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM), and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP).
The opposition has released a manifesto promising financial assistance of ₹2,500 per month to women and to implement the Old Pension Scheme (OPS). They also promise to pass a law within 20 days of forming the government to provide government jobs to one member of every family in the state.
Several factors could influence the election outcome. Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj and Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM are also contesting, further complicating the electoral landscape. A consolidated opposition under Tejashwi Yadav could challenge the NDA's edge. Any defection of Nishad or Vaishya votes could damage NDA's prospects. Vote splitting by Jan Suraaj could also erode the NDA's support base among key castes.
Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah predicts a win for the Mahagathbandhan, citing anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar. He criticized the NDA for copying Karnataka's welfare guarantees, stating that the Bihar government has failed to eradicate poverty.
The NDA is trying to capitalize on the work done in the last ten years and wants to ensure double-digit sustainable growth for the state. The opposition wants to focus on government employment.
