The Indian stock market is bracing for a potentially volatile week, influenced by a mix of domestic and global factors. Several key triggers are expected to guide market movements in the coming days, ranging from corporate earnings to crucial inflation data. Here are the top five factors that could impact the Indian stock market this week.
1. Q2 FY26 Earnings Season Continues
The Q2 FY26 earnings season is in full swing, with several major Indian companies across various sectors releasing their July-September scorecards. Investors are closely watching these results for insights into demand trends, margin pressures, and the overall economic pulse. Companies such as Bharti Airtel, Titan, and Power Grid Corporation of India are among those that have recently announced their quarterly results.
Recently announced Q2 results include:
- Adani Enterprises: Reported a 71.65% profit growth, with a consolidated net profit of ₹3,414 crore. However, revenue from operations fell by 6%.
- Mahindra & Mahindra: Posted a consolidated net profit of ₹3,673 crore, up nearly 15.85% year-on-year. Revenue from operations stood at ₹45,885.40 crore, up 21.75%.
- One MobiKwik Systems: Reported a widening consolidated loss of ₹28.6 crore. Revenue from operations saw a 7% decline.
- UltraTech Cement: Reported a consolidated net profit of ₹1,237.98 crore for the September quarter.
- Hindalco Industries: Consolidated net profit increased to ₹4,741 crore, up 21% year on year.
These results are offering crucial insights into which sectors are driving growth and which are losing momentum.
2. Inflation Data Release
India is scheduled to release inflation data this week, which will be a key factor influencing market sentiment. ANZ and DBS expect headline CPI for October to plunge to a fresh low of 0.2% year-on-year, driven by food deflation and sharp declines in vegetable prices. This compares to 1.54% in September.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will be closely watching the inflation numbers as it considers future monetary policy decisions. ANZ expects India's core inflation to stay elevated at 4.5%, supported by higher gold prices, and believes the RBI could deliver one more rate cut in December, depending on growth conditions.
3. Global Cues and Trade Developments
Global cues, including developments in international trade and economic policies, will continue to play a significant role. Investors are closely monitoring US shutdown and tariff-related developments with US-India and US-China trade deals to assess the durability of the current momentum. Any positive progress in trade negotiations could boost market sentiment, while renewed tensions could trigger volatility.
4. Foreign Fund Flows
Persistent foreign fund outflows have been weighing on the Indian stock market. According to Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking Ltd., markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term amid global uncertainties and a heavy flow of economic and earnings data. Continuous selling pressure from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) could further dampen market sentiment.
5. Technical Levels and Market Sentiment
Technical analysts are closely watching key support and resistance levels for the Nifty 50 and Sensex. Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, noted that Nifty's recent decline below a crucial moving average has strengthened the bearish tone. Nifty is expected to slide toward the key support range of 25,500–25,400, before staging a rebound.
Overall, the Indian stock market is expected to remain range-bound with a positive bias. The Nifty 50 is expected to move in a range of 25300-25800 points this week and current levels might attract buying, technical analysts said.
