Will Prashant Kishor Quit Politics If JD(U) Wins Over 25 Seats In Bihar? Why Exit Polls Led To Buzz
As the Bihar Assembly elections of 2025 draw to a close, all eyes are on the potential outcomes for key players, particularly poll strategist Prashant Kishor and his Jan Suraaj Party. While the actual results are slated to be announced on November 14th, exit poll predictions have already stirred considerable debate and speculation, especially concerning Kishor's political future.
Prashant Kishor, after years of masterminding victories for other parties, launched the Jan Suraaj Party on October 2, 2024, aiming to carve out a space in Bihar's political landscape. Kishor promised a new brand of politics focused on governance and citizen engagement, a departure from the traditional caste-based dynamics of the state. He embarked on a "Jan Suraaj Padyatra," directly engaging with citizens to understand their concerns about corruption, unemployment, and governance. Jan Suraaj contested in all 243 seats in the Bihar Assembly elections.
However, exit poll predictions paint a bleak picture for Jan Suraaj, forecasting minimal seat wins. Most exit polls predict that Jan Suraaj Party will secure less than 5 seats. People's Pulse predicts between 0 and 5 seats for the party. Other agencies like People's Insight and Matrize predict between 0 and 2 seats.
These projections have naturally led to questions about Kishor's future political trajectory. Adding fuel to the fire, speculation arose around a hypothetical scenario: would Prashant Kishor consider quitting politics if the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)], led by Nitish Kumar, secures more than 25 seats? This buzz stemmed from Kishor's past association with the JD(U), where he served as the party's vice president from 2018 to 2020. His prior role as an advisor to Nitish Kumar further intensified the speculation.
Several factors contributed to the underwhelming exit poll predictions for Jan Suraaj. Some analysts suggest that Kishor's decision not to contest himself may have impacted the party's performance. Others point to the challenges of establishing a new political entity in a state dominated by long-standing alliances and entrenched caste dynamics. Accusations of Jan Suraaj being a "B-team" of either the NDA or Mahagathbandhan further clouded the party's image.
Despite the discouraging forecasts, Kishor maintains a defiant stance. He has stated that Jan Suraaj is prepared to work for another five years if the people of Bihar don't want change yet. He has also asserted his opposition to the BJP on ideological grounds.
The exit polls largely predict a victory for the NDA. NDTV's poll of exit polls suggests that the BJP-JD(U) led NDA is expected to secure 147 seats. Other exit polls, including those by Matrize, JVC and Dainik Bhaskar, also predict a win for the NDA. However, one exit poll by Journo Mirror, bucks the trend and predicts a win for the Mahagathbandhan.
Regardless of the accuracy of the exit polls, the Bihar election results will have significant implications for national politics. A victory for the NDA would bolster Prime Minister Modi's narrative. A strong showing by the INDIA bloc would revive the opposition's credibility. And for Prashant Kishor, the election serves as a critical test of his ability to transition from a backroom strategist to a frontline political leader. The final outcome on November 14th will determine whether Jan Suraaj can emerge as a relevant force in Bihar's political future or if Kishor will need to recalibrate his approach.
