The Axis My India exit poll for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections indicates a close contest between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Mahagathbandhan (MGB), with key voting blocs showing distinct preferences. The poll, conducted across 2154 villages and towns and encompassing 42,031 voters, suggests that unemployment, first-time voting status, and religious affiliation played a significant role in shaping voter choices.

Key Findings on Voter Preference

The exit poll highlights a stark divide in voter preferences based on various socio-economic factors. A significant percentage of unemployed voters (49%) favored the Mahagathbandhan, while 34% supported the NDA. Similarly, students showed a preference for the MGB, with 48% voting for the alliance compared to 33% for the NDA. Farmers were almost evenly split, with 43% backing the MGB and 42% choosing the NDA. These figures suggest that employment-related concerns strongly influenced voting behavior.

The Mahagathbandhan continues to maintain a stronghold over its traditional Muslim-Yadav base, securing approximately 90% of Yadav votes and 79% of Muslim votes. This demonstrates the enduring loyalty of these communities to the MGB.

Overall Projections

Axis My India projects the NDA to win between 121-141 seats, giving the Mahagathbandhan a range of 98-118 seats. The survey projects the NDA's overall vote share at 43%, slightly ahead of the MGB's 41%. Other parties, including Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), are estimated to draw a smaller percentage of votes.

Urban-Rural Divide

The Axis My India poll indicates only a marginal difference in urban and rural voting patterns. In urban areas, the NDA received 44% of votes, and the MGB 42%. In rural Bihar, the NDA's vote share stood at 43%, while the MGB polled 41%.

Preferred Chief Ministerial Candidate

According to the Axis My India survey, 34% of respondents named Tejashwi Yadav as their preferred CM, followed by 22% for Nitish Kumar. This suggests that Tejashwi Yadav has emerged as a popular leader in the state.

The 2025 Bihar Assembly elections witnessed record-breaking turnout in two phases. The first phase on November 6 saw a voter turnout of 65.08%, while the second phase on November 11 recorded a higher 68.67% turnout. The combined voter participation stood at 66.91%, which the Election Commission of India described as the highest-ever in the state's electoral history. The counting of votes will take place on November 14.