Bihar is on tenterhooks, awaiting the results of the Assembly elections tomorrow, November 14, 2025. A historically high voter turnout of 66.91%, has political analysts and parties alike pondering whether this surge in participation favors the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or the opposition India bloc. With the counting just hours away, the question remains: does a high voter turnout spell good news for the ruling coalition or signify a yearning for change? Examining past electoral trends in Bihar may offer some clues.
Historically, increased voter turnout is often interpreted as an indication of the public's desire for a change in governance. Voters who were previously apathetic or disenfranchised are motivated to cast their ballots, signaling dissatisfaction with the status quo. However, Bihar's electoral history is replete with instances that defy conventional wisdom. The state's complex social dynamics and caste-based politics often result in unpredictable outcomes.
To understand the potential implications of tomorrow's results, it's crucial to analyze the outcomes of past elections with significant voter turnouts.
2010 Assembly Elections: The 2010 elections saw a landslide victory for the NDA, securing 206 seats out of 243. The Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) won 115 seats, and the BJP secured 91. This election was marked by a pro-incumbency wave, with voters rewarding the Nitish Kumar-led government for its development initiatives and improved law and order situation. The high turnout, in this case, reflected a widespread endorsement of the existing government.
2015 Assembly Elections: In a dramatic turn of events, the 2015 elections witnessed the JD(U) joining hands with its former rivals, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress, to form the Mahagathbandhan. This coalition secured a resounding victory over the NDA, winning 178 seats. The RJD won 80 seats, the JD(U) 71, and the Congress 27. The high voter turnout was attributed to the consolidation of backward and minority votes in favor of the Mahagathbandhan, reflecting a desire to counter the perceived dominance of the NDA.
2020 Assembly Elections: The 2020 elections presented a more complex scenario. While the RJD emerged as the single-largest party with 75 seats, the NDA managed to secure a narrow victory with 125 seats. The BJP won 74 seats, while the JD(U)'s tally declined to 43. This election saw a fragmented mandate, with the high voter turnout indicating a close contest and a division of votes among various political players.
Several exit polls are predicting a win for the NDA. Axis My India Exit Poll predicted that the NDA would be ahead of the Mahagathbandhan, but the RJD would emerge as the single-largest party. Today's Chanakya has forecast a comprehensive win for the NDA over the Mahagathbandhan. However, exit polls have a mixed record in Bihar. In 2015, exit polls underestimated the Mahagathbandhan's victory, and in 2020, most predicted a win for the Mahagathbandhan, but the NDA won.
In the 2025 elections, women voters have once again outnumbered men, with 71.6% of all registered women voting compared to 62.8% of men. This could be a crucial factor in determining the outcome, as women voters are often considered to be more discerning and less influenced by traditional caste or community considerations.
As Bihar braces itself for the election results, the high voter turnout remains a subject of intense speculation. While historical trends offer some insights, the unique dynamics of each election make it difficult to draw definitive conclusions. The final outcome will depend on a complex interplay of factors, including caste alignments, candidate appeal, and the effectiveness of each party's campaign strategy. Only time will tell whether the bumper voting will translate into a victory for the NDA or a change of guard in Bihar.
