Tarique Rahman's return to Bangladesh on December 25, 2025, after 17 years of self-imposed exile in the United Kingdom, has significant implications for the country's political landscape and its relationship with India. As the acting chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Rahman's arrival comes at a crucial juncture, with general elections scheduled for February 12, 2026.

Political Resurgence and BNP's Prospects

Rahman's return is seen as a potential game-changer for Bangladesh's political scene. With the Awami League (AL) barred from contesting in the upcoming elections, the BNP has emerged as a frontrunner, positioning Rahman as a potential prime minister. His presence is expected to galvanize BNP supporters and strengthen the party's campaign. Rahman's political journey began early, and he rose to prominence during his mother Khaleda Zia's time as prime minister in the early 2000s. He has been credited with reorganizing the BNP and connecting with grassroots activists. Despite facing numerous accusations of corruption and money laundering, which the BNP claims are politically motivated, Rahman maintains significant support within the party.

Implications for Bangladesh-India Relations

India is closely monitoring Rahman's return and its potential impact on the bilateral relationship. Historically, BNP-led governments have had tense relations with New Delhi. However, there have been recent signals of a potential reset in ties. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's public expression of concern for Khaleda Zia's health was reciprocated with gratitude from the BNP, indicating a possible thaw in relations. Rahman himself has questioned the Yunus government's mandate to make long-term foreign policy decisions, suggesting a possible shift in approach.

Despite these positive signals, several factors contribute to the complex dynamics between Bangladesh and India. The ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, who had a strong relationship with India, has led to increased instability and anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh. Recent incidents, including the death of a student leader and attacks on minorities, have further strained relations. India has expressed concerns over the safety of minorities in Bangladesh and has urged the government to address these issues.

India's Stance and Regional Security Concerns

India has stated that Rahman's return should be viewed in the context of ensuring free, fair, and inclusive elections in Bangladesh. The Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal emphasized India's support for a democratic process in the neighboring country. However, India remains concerned about the rise of Islamist forces, such as Jamaat-e-Islami, which are seen as proxies for Pakistan's intelligence. These concerns are amplified by the ongoing violence and unrest in Bangladesh, raising fears of regional instability.

The coming weeks will be crucial in determining the future of Bangladesh-India relations. As Bangladesh prepares for its elections, India faces a delicate balancing act of engaging with a possible BNP-led government while safeguarding its strategic interests and regional stability.