Solana (SOL) is currently facing headwinds that suggest a突破 above the $150 mark may not be imminent. Recent data indicates a stall in its recovery, with several factors weighing on its price action.
One of the primary concerns is the weakening network activity. Data from Nansen reveals a decrease in active addresses and a decline in network fees over the past week. This suggests a reduced demand for the Solana network, impacting its overall value proposition. Furthermore, Solana's Total Value Locked (TVL) has experienced a significant drop, falling 20% month-to-date and 32% from its September high. Jito, Jupiter, Raydium and Sanctum recorded significant declines in TVL.
Adding to the downward pressure, Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen their streak of net inflows come to an end, recording their first single-day net outflow of $8.2 million on Wednesday. This could signal a potential decrease in institutional demand, further hindering SOL's recovery.
Technical analysis also paints a cautious picture. SOL's recent recovery stalled at $145, and a bear flag pattern has emerged, projecting a deeper price correction towards $100. SOL is trading below short-term and long-term moving averages, while momentum indicators display neutral readings instead of active selling pressure.
Adding more uncertainty to the market, Upbit, a South Korean exchange, experienced a hack involving a $36 million theft from its Solana hot wallet on Thursday. The exchange has suspended SOL deposits and withdrawals for maintenance, which curbs liquidity and could amplify price volatility.
Despite these challenges, Solana is stabilizing around the $135 to $140 zone. On November 26, 2025, the price attempted to regain momentum after a period of market stagnation. Some analysts believe that SOL's decline could be reaching an exhaustion point, with a nearby resistance level as the first target for recovery. If Solana can secure a decisive close above a descending trendline, a push towards the $145 to $148 region becomes increasingly likely.
Looking ahead, several factors could influence Solana's price trajectory. A recovery in market sentiment and renewed activity in Solana's DeFi, memecoin, and validator ecosystem could potentially push SOL towards the $170–$190 zone by December 2025. Continued institutional adoption and network upgrades may also extend its bullish momentum.
However, it's important to acknowledge the speculative nature of price predictions. Factors such as demand for Solana-based applications, developer activity, macroeconomic trends, and overall sentiment within the broader crypto market can all impact Solana's price.
Currently, the overall sentiment leans towards bearish. Technical indicators signal bearish sentiment on Solana. The Fear & Greed Index is displaying a score of 15, indicating extreme fear. Over the last 30 days, Solana has had 10/30 (33%) green days and 14.12% price volatility.
In conclusion, while Solana has shown resilience in the past, the combination of weakening network activity, negative ETF flows, technical indicators, and the Upbit hack suggests that breaking the $150 barrier will be challenging in the short term. Investors should closely monitor these factors and exercise caution when making investment decisions.
