Bitcoin mining difficulty is projected to increase in December 2025, even as hashprice, the revenue miners earn for their computing power, hovers near record lows. This juxtaposition highlights the increasingly challenging economics facing Bitcoin miners.

Understanding Mining Difficulty and Hashprice

Bitcoin mining difficulty is a measure of how computationally intensive it is to mine a new block. The Bitcoin network automatically adjusts the difficulty every 2,016 blocks (approximately every two weeks) to maintain a consistent block time of around 10 minutes. If blocks are being mined faster than 10 minutes, the difficulty increases, and if they are mined slower, the difficulty decreases. This adjustment ensures the predictability of Bitcoin's issuance rate, regardless of the number of miners participating.

Hashprice, on the other hand, reflects the expected daily revenue a miner can generate per terahash (PH/s) of computing power. It takes into account factors such as the Bitcoin price, block rewards, transaction fees, and mining difficulty. A lower hashprice indicates reduced profitability for miners.

Factors Influencing the Forecast

The anticipated rise in mining difficulty in December is primarily due to the increasing total computational power, or hashrate, on the Bitcoin network. As more miners join the network or existing miners upgrade their hardware, the hashrate increases, leading to a corresponding rise in mining difficulty. Estimates suggest the next difficulty adjustment, expected around December 9th or 11th, 2025, could see an increase of approximately 5.6%. However, other sources predict a decrease of 0.17% to 0.82%. These varying predictions highlight the dynamic nature of the Bitcoin network and the challenges in forecasting future difficulty adjustments.

Despite the projected increase in difficulty, hashprice remains near all-time lows. On November 21, 2025, hashprice dropped below $35 per petahash per second (PH/s), a level not seen in over five years. This decline is attributed to a combination of factors, including a drop in Bitcoin's price, persistently high network difficulty, and reduced on-chain transaction fees. Bitcoin is currently trading near $83,000, down more than 30% from its all-time high last month. The reduction in transaction fees, which now constitute a small percentage of miner payouts, further exacerbates the profitability squeeze.

Implications for Miners

The combination of rising difficulty and low hashprice creates a challenging environment for Bitcoin miners. With lower revenues and increased computational costs, some miners, particularly those using older, less efficient equipment, may find it difficult to remain profitable. Some operators have already begun scaling back, as evidenced by a slight decrease in the seven-day moving hashrate average in late November.

In response to these pressures, some mining companies are exploring alternative strategies to sustain operations. These include:

• AI Integration: Some miners are repurposing their infrastructure to support high-performance AI computing, capitalizing on the growing demand for AI processing power.
• Hardware Efficiency: Focusing on deploying the most efficient mining hardware to maximize revenue per unit of energy consumed.
• Geographic Diversification: Seeking locations with stable, low-cost electricity and favorable regulatory environments.
• Industry Consolidation: Merging with other mining companies to achieve economies of scale and improve operational efficiency.

Long-Term Outlook

The long-term profitability of Bitcoin mining remains uncertain. The difficulty adjustment mechanism is designed to maintain the stability and security of the Bitcoin network. As the network continues to evolve, miners will need to adapt to changing market conditions and embrace innovative strategies to remain competitive.