Ethereum's price is once again facing downward pressure, slipping below the $3,000 mark as on-chain data presents a mixed outlook for the cryptocurrency's near-term trajectory. As of December 1, 2025, Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $2,838, reflecting a more than 6% drop in the past 24 hours and a nearly 27% decrease over the last 30 days. This downturn follows a period of volatility, leaving investors uncertain about whether this is a temporary dip or the start of a deeper correction.
Several factors contribute to the current price weakness. One significant technical indicator is the breakdown from a bear flag pattern, suggesting a potential price target near $2,140, which is approximately 28% below the breakdown level. This bearish signal emerged after ETH failed to sustain gains above $2,990 and subsequently fell out of a rising channel it had been trading within for about a week.
On-chain data, which examines blockchain data to understand transaction patterns and network health, offers a more nuanced perspective. While the price action looks bearish, some on-chain metrics suggest a possible bottom could be forming. Long-term holder NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), a metric that measures the profit or loss of long-term holders, has been trending downwards since late August, indicating that these holders are reducing their unrealized profits. Historically, when NUPL reaches levels similar to those observed in June 2025 (around 0.28), ETH has tended to find a bottom and subsequently rally.
However, other on-chain signals paint a more cautious picture. Exchange inflows, which reflect the amount of ETH being deposited on centralized exchanges, can often precede sell-offs, while outflows may indicate a preference for holding. Additionally, the levels of stablecoins on exchanges can also be an indicator of buying interest. Monitoring these metrics can provide insights into potential buying or selling pressure.
Currently, Ethereum is sitting on its strongest cost-basis wall between $2,801 and $2,823, where approximately 3.59 million ETH were bought. Breaking below this level increases the pressure, and failure to quickly reclaim $2,840 and close above $2,990 could give sellers full control. If the weakness continues, the next levels to watch are around $2,690, about 4.5% below the current price. A successful daily close below $2,623 could confirm a range breakdown and potentially extend the decline to the June 22 low of $2,111.
The broader cryptocurrency market is also experiencing a downturn, with Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP facing similar bearish pressures. This widespread selling aligns with concerns raised by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) regarding potential interest rate hikes, which could increase borrowing costs and negatively impact carry trades.
Despite the current challenges, some analysts believe that the Ethereum selloff presents a buying opportunity for long-term investors. They point to macroeconomic factors such as falling U.S. inflation and continued inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs as signs of improved risk appetite. Furthermore, the increasing institutional adoption of Ethereum, with companies holding significant amounts of ETH in their treasuries, suggests confidence in the long-term potential of the network.
Ultimately, whether Ethereum can hold its current support level or if it will decline further remains to be seen. Traders and investors should closely monitor key support and resistance levels, on-chain data, and broader market sentiment to make informed decisions. To invalidate the bearish pattern, ETH must regain $2,840, then break above $2,990, and then secure a close above $3,090. The bearish pattern loses meaning only if ETH pushes through $3,240, which would be a roughly 15% move up from current levels. For now, ETH trades beneath its strongest cost-basis wall, long-term holders are still reducing unrealized profit, and the continuation structure points clearly lower. If these conditions hold, the $2,260–$2,140 region becomes the most probable area where Ethereum could form its next cycle bottom.
