India's economic outlook is gaining increased attention as the nation prepares for the release of a new GDP series in February 2026. Recent GDP data has spurred economists to revise their growth forecasts upwards, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has highlighted areas for improvement in India's statistical framework.
The next set of GDP data, which will cover the October-December quarter, is scheduled for release on February 27, 2026. This release will be based on the new GDP series, using 2022-23 as the base year, replacing the previous base year of 2011-12. Revisions to GDP growth rates for the past three years are also expected.
The anticipation of the new series has sparked discussions on the potential impact of the updated coverage, new datasets, and methodological shifts on growth forecasts. According to ICICI Securities Primary Dealership economists, judging how the new series' growth will differ from the old is difficult due to updated coverage, the availability of new data sets, and shifts in methodology. They added that revisions to the old numbers complicate forecasting.
The Indian economy has demonstrated robust growth, with the GDP expanding by 8.2% in the July-September quarter of 2025. This has prompted economists to revise their forecasts for the fiscal year 2025-26 to nearly 7.5%, a significant increase from earlier predictions of 6.5-6.6% by organizations such as the World Bank and the IMF. Barclays economists Aastha Gudwani and Amruta Ghare have raised their projection for 2025-26 by 40 basis points to 7.2% due to strong momentum in October-December, driven by festival demand and Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate cuts boosting consumption.
Crisil has also revised its GDP growth forecast for the current financial year to 7% from 6.5%, citing the stronger-than-expected growth of 8% in the first half of the year. Crisil's chief economist, Dharmakriti Joshi, noted that the real GDP growth in the second quarter stood at 8.2%, exceeding expectations. Private consumption was identified as a key driver of this growth, with significant rises in manufacturing and services.
Despite the positive growth momentum, the IMF's recent assessment of India's national account statistics has assigned a 'C-grade', indicating shortcomings in the country's GDP data. The IMF has pointed out issues such as the outdated base year, the use of the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) as deflators, gaps between production and expenditure data, and limited seasonal adjustment. In response, India has stated that upgrades are underway, including the introduction of the new GDP and CPI series in February 2026. The new GDP series will include updated methodologies, new administrative and survey databases, and contemporary sectoral weights. An updated CPI series, based on the 2023–24 Household Consumption Expenditure Survey with 2024 as the new base year, will be released on February 12. A revised Index of Industrial Production (IIP) with 2022-23 as the base year is also expected.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is also planning to release Balance of Payments data, including the current account balance, monthly, in addition to the current quarterly practice. These changes are expected to improve the quality and timeliness of India's economic data.
