The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast indicating that North India may experience a chillier winter with an increased number of cold waves. The IMD anticipates normal to below-normal temperatures in central India and adjoining northwest and peninsular regions during the winter season from December 2025 to February 2026.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, in an online briefing, stated that above-normal maximum temperatures are likely in the western Himalayan region, the Himalayan foothills, northeastern states, and some pockets of eastern and western India.
Several states may experience four to five additional days of cold wave conditions. These states include Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, and parts of Maharashtra, which typically experience four to six cold wave days between December and February.
The IMD expects normal to below-normal minimum temperatures over most of central India and adjoining peninsular and northwest India during the upcoming winter season. Above-normal minimum temperatures are expected in the remaining parts of the country. Maximum temperatures across most regions are expected to remain normal to below normal throughout the season.
The first spell of cold to severe cold wave conditions arrived earlier than usual, between November 8 and 18, in isolated pockets of west, central, and adjoining east India, including northeast Rajasthan, south Haryana, north Madhya Pradesh, south Uttar Pradesh, and north Chhattisgarh. North interior Maharashtra also experienced cold wave conditions on November 15 and 20. Another cold wave phase is expected between December 3 and 5 across parts of northwest and central India.
The IMD anticipates weak La Niña conditions to continue during the December to February period. La Niña, characterized by large-scale cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, is associated with changes in atmospheric circulation and can lead to colder winters in India. The IMD expects La Niña to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a likely transition to ENSO-neutral conditions between January and March 2026, with a 61% probability.
The forecast is based on a dynamical system. The IMD uses a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) based forecasting system for issuing monthly and seasonal outlooks of rainfall and temperature over the country. The MME approach uses coupled global climate models from different global climate prediction and research centers.
A cold wave is officially declared when the minimum temperature falls below roughly 90% of the daily recorded temperatures and drops below 15°C, persisting for at least three consecutive days.
