Solana's (SOL) on-chain activity is signaling a potential shift in supply as the cryptocurrency trades near a crucial support level of $120. This confluence of factors suggests a pivotal moment for SOL, potentially influencing its trajectory in the near term.
On-Chain Flows Indicate Supply Shift
Data from on-chain flows reveal a notable shift in Solana's supply dynamics. Stablecoin inflows and a tightening SOL supply are contributing to this structural advantage. Despite the positive on-chain signals, increased market participation is necessary to translate this advantage into upward price momentum. Tools like Nansen, Solscan, Dune Analytics, Step Finance, and Hello Moon are essential for investors and traders to gain real-time insights into Solana's on-chain activity. These platforms enable the tracking of smart money, monitoring of DeFi and NFT trends, analysis of wallet behavior, and the discovery of emerging opportunities.
Price Analysis and Key Support Levels
Currently, Solana is trading around $126. The immediate challenge for SOL is to overcome the resistance near $130. A successful breach of this level could pave the way for a recovery wave, targeting the $136 and $140 levels. However, failure to overcome this resistance could lead to further decline, with initial support near $125 and major support at $122. A break below $120 could trigger a slide toward $112.
Analysts point to $121 as a critical level to protect. A close below this mark could invalidate bullish signals and jeopardize the long-term weekly trendline. Conversely, a close above $141 is seen as the first step towards a rebound, potentially reaching $173 and $187.
Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment
Technical indicators present a mixed picture. The hourly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SOL/USD is gaining pace in the bearish zone, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 50. However, some analysts observe a potential basing pattern at support, suggesting that buyers may be preparing for a reaction if the current support at $132 stabilizes. A break above $133 could trigger a push towards the $145 to $150 resistance zone. Overall market sentiment appears to be bearish with extreme fear.
Institutional Interest and ETF Flows
Despite recent price fluctuations, institutional interest in Solana remains strong. Solana ETFs experienced a period of consistent inflows, demonstrating continued demand from institutional investors. However, a recent outflow of $8.1 million, driven by the 21Shares Solana ETF, broke a 21-day streak of inflows. Funds linked to Grayscale and Fidelity have added to their positions, offsetting some of the impact. As of late November 2025, Solana ETFs hold approximately 6.83 million SOL, valued at around $964 million.
Potential Scenarios and Future Outlook
The near-term outlook for Solana hinges on its ability to defend key support levels and overcome resistance. A confirmed breakout above $150 could open the door to $158-$165. Conversely, failure to hold $133 puts the focus back on $128 and $121.
Solana's strong fundamentals, including its high transaction speeds and low fees, continue to attract developers and capital. The network's growing ecosystem and increasing adoption suggest long-term potential.
