Amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and escalating global tensions, a significant shift in international relations appears to be quietly unfolding. Recent developments suggest that former U.S. President Donald Trump is subtly reshaping alliances, potentially drawing India, Russia, and China closer together while seemingly isolating Europe and leaving it to grapple with the ramifications of the war in Ukraine.

This potential realignment is marked by several key events and policy shifts. Firstly, Trump's administration has shown a willingness to engage with Russia, even amid strong condemnation from European allies. Secondly, despite historically close ties with Europe, the U.S. is seemingly prioritizing its own interests, potentially at the expense of transatlantic unity. This is evidenced by increased tariffs on goods from countries like India, a move seen as pressuring them to reduce reliance on Russian energy, while simultaneously pursuing trade deals with China.

The exclusion of Europe from a proposed "Core 5" group, which includes the U.S., China, India, Russia, and Japan, further underscores this shift. This decision sends a strong signal that the U.S. views Russia as a dominant power in Europe and may be prioritizing relationships with other major global players.

China has officially stated that stable relations between China, India, and Russia are key to global stability. According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun, maintaining good neighborly relations serves the interests of those countries and promotes global peace. Guo Jiakun also said that China is ready to normalize discussions with India and work with them on a strategic level to ensure stable bilateral relations.

This strategic recalibration has raised concerns among some U.S. lawmakers, who emphasize the importance of the U.S.-India partnership in countering China's rise and upholding democratic values. However, the Trump administration's approach appears to be driven by a different set of priorities, potentially prioritizing deal-making and great power politics over traditional alliances.

India, meanwhile, finds itself in a complex position. It has historically maintained close ties with Russia, particularly in defense and energy. However, it also seeks to balance its relationships with the U.S. and China, navigating a multipolar world where its strategic autonomy is paramount. India shares a vision of a multipolar international order with Russia, which is not dominated by the West and gives a greater role to the Global South. This vision emphasizes national identities based on culture and civilization, as well as respect to major powers and their spheres of interest.

Trump's policies have created some strain in the U.S.-India relationship, with increased tariffs and restrictions on H-1B visas affecting trade and labor flows. Despite these tensions, the underlying strategic convergence between the two countries, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, remains intact.

The potential consequences of this evolving geopolitical landscape are far-reaching. A closer alignment between India, Russia, and China could reshape the global balance of power, potentially challenging the existing international order. It could also leave Europe increasingly isolated, as it grapples with the economic and security challenges posed by the war in Ukraine.

Whether this realignment represents a deliberate strategy or a series of unintended consequences remains to be seen. However, it is clear that the global landscape is shifting, and traditional alliances are being tested. As the world enters 2026, the implications of these changes will likely become even more apparent.