Indian stock markets are expected to open with muted trends today, December 16, 2025, following negative cues from Asian markets and a decline in US equities. Here's a breakdown of eight key factors influencing the market:

1. Gift Nifty Signals a Cautious Start:

• The Gift Nifty, an indicator of Nifty 50 futures, was trading near 26,085, a slight decrease of 5.5 points or 0.02% from the previous close.
• This suggests a possibly muted opening for the Indian benchmark indices.
• The Gift Nifty serves as a tool for global investors to trade in the Indian market. It is mainly used by hedge funds, institutional investors, and global market participants to hedge their India exposure or to take directional calls on the Nifty 50.

2. Asian Market Trends:

• Most Asian stocks experienced a decline, mirroring a weak overnight session on Wall Street.
• Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell by 1.26%, while the Topix declined 1.12%. South Korea's Kospi rose 0.12%, while the Kosdaq retreated 0.25%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index futures indicated a lower opening.
• The Shanghai Composite fell 0.55%.

3. US Market Performance:

• US stocks fell as investors shifted funds out of technology shares and into value-focused sectors.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.51%, the S&P 500 by 1.07%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 1.69%.

4. Domestic Market Performance (Previous Day):

• On December 15, Indian equities snapped a two-session winning streak and closed lower.
• The Sensex declined 54 points (0.06%) to close at 85,213.36, while the Nifty 50 fell 20 points (0.08%) to end at 26,027.30.

5. Gold Prices on the Rise:

• Spot gold was trading 0.6% higher at $4,327.45 per ounce.
• US gold futures also soared by 0.79% to $4,362.35.
• Gold rose to $4,306.84 USD/t.oz on December 16, 2025, up 0.01% from the previous day. Over the past month, Gold's price has risen 6.43%, and is up 62.69% compared to the same time last year.

6. Crude Oil Prices Increase:

• Brent crude surged by 0.33% to $61.45/barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading 0.54% higher at $57.55/barrel.

7. Market Sentiment and Outlook:

• Persistent foreign fund outflows and a weak rupee have kept markets in a narrow range.
• Currency volatility is likely to continue until clarity emerges on the India–US trade deal.
• Expectations of an earnings recovery in H2FY26, supported by monetary and fiscal growth drivers, are helping stabilize sentiment.
• Going forward, market momentum is expected to be earnings-led rather than valuation-driven.

8. Key Economic Indicators to Watch:

• Investors are awaiting key economic indicators, including U.S. CPI inflation and unemployment data, which will shape global liquidity expectations and the interest rate outlook for 2026.

In summary, the Indian stock market is facing headwinds from global cues, particularly negative trends in Asian and US markets. The muted signal from Gift Nifty suggests a cautious opening. Rising gold and crude oil prices, along with upcoming economic data releases, are also factors influencing market sentiment.