The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has experienced a significant decline in 2025, dropping by approximately 50%. This metric, which represents the value of Bitcoin relative to gold, has fallen to levels that have historically indicated market bottoms. As of December 15, 2025, the ratio stands around 20 XAU, a notable decrease from the 35-40 XAU range observed during the 2021 bull market.
Several factors contribute to this shift in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio. Gold has maintained its safe-haven appeal amidst tightening monetary policies and cautious investor sentiment impacting global markets. In 2025, gold soared, while Bitcoin traded laterally, influencing the ratio to move upwards. Bitcoin's price faced resistance around the $90,000 level, further contributing to the ratio's decline. The current Bitcoin to Gold ratio is 19.75 as of December 13, 2025. Bitcoin's market cap is $1.8T, approximately 5.7% of gold’s $30.9T market cap.
Analysts suggest that the current levels may indicate that gold is overvalued relative to Bitcoin, potentially leading to a shift of funds towards Bitcoin in the near future. The relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin against gold has fallen below 30, signaling a possible undervaluation of Bitcoin. Furthermore, the gap between the BTC/GOLD ratio and its 20-week moving average suggests a potential mean reversion in the coming cycles.
Examining historical data, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is testing a long-term trendline that has been in place since 2019. The Z-score, which measures the distance between the price and its long-term average, has dropped to approximately -1.7, levels similar to those seen in 2019, 2020, and 2022, all periods that preceded a strengthening of Bitcoin against gold.
The ratio between gold and Bitcoin is considered by some traders to be an indicator of market sentiment, reflecting a comparison between safety and growth. A rising ratio may reflect a preference for the stability of gold, while a falling ratio suggests increasing risk appetite and a shift towards the growth potential of Bitcoin. Historically, breakdowns in the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio have preceded significant Bitcoin rallies, as seen in 2017 and 2021, when capital rotated into Bitcoin.
Despite the current decline, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects. If Bitcoin can reclaim the $88,000 level, it would signal a positive trend. Failure to do so may lead to further declines towards support levels around $83,800 and $80,500. Looking ahead, if Bitcoin returns to its previous cycle high ratio of 58 and gold remains around $4,100 per ounce, Bitcoin could potentially reach $240,000. The correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold is 0.29 over the last 12 months, which indicates they generally move in the same direction.
It's important to note that the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is not a definitive price prediction tool. Market conditions can change, and past performance is not always indicative of future results. However, the current ratio, being at a historically low quantile, suggests that a significant upside move for Bitcoin is plausible.
