Bitcoin's recent market behavior is raising concerns among analysts, with several indicators suggesting a potential shift into a new bear market. After a period of significant growth, driven by factors such as the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, the U.S. presidential election, and corporate treasury adoption, demand for Bitcoin appears to be waning.
Demand Deterioration
CryptoQuant, a blockchain research firm, recently published a report highlighting a slowdown in Bitcoin demand growth since early October 2025. This decline suggests that the accumulation demand from the recent cycle has largely been absorbed, removing a key support for Bitcoin's price. Several factors point to this demand weakening. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had previously seen aggressive accumulation, have experienced net selling recently. As of late 2025, holdings have declined by roughly 24,000 BTC, signaling cooling institutional interest. Long-term funding rates in perpetual futures have also dropped to their lowest levels since late 2023, indicating a reduced appetite for leveraged long positions.
Technical Indicators
Bitcoin has slipped below its 365-day moving average, a technical boundary that has historically separated bull and bear markets. On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin is bearish, with the 50-day moving average falling, suggesting a weakening short-term trend. The 200-day moving average has been rising since mid-December 2025, indicating a strong longer-term trend, but overall, technical indicators signal a sideways consolidation phase, suggesting the market may require stronger volume and sentiment before a decisive directional move emerges.
Potential Price Targets
CryptoQuant analysts have identified $70,000 as a key downside zone in the coming months. This level is seen as the first major support where buyers might attempt to stabilize the price. However, if this level fails to hold, a more prolonged bearish scenario could see Bitcoin drifting toward its realized price near $56,000, a level that has often marked cycle bottoms in past bear markets. Despite these concerns, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. Bitcoin price prediction models suggest a potential 25%-30% upside, potentially taking BTC to around $105,000 - $110,000 by the end of December 2025, assuming supportive macroeconomic conditions.
Broader Market Trends
The potential bear market in Bitcoin coincides with broader macroeconomic headwinds. Uncertainty over the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy path and concerns about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence trade have triggered selling across risk assets. Bitcoin's correlation with equities has strengthened, meaning institutional investors now treat BTC more as a risk-on asset tied to macroeconomic policy rather than a digital safe haven. This closer alignment with liquidity cycles, fiscal policy, and geopolitical developments could further influence Bitcoin's price.
Investor Sentiment
Global search interest for "Bitcoin bear market" has surged to its highest level in the past five years, even higher than during the 2021 crash and the 2022-23 bear market. This increase in searches suggests rising retail fear, a key sentiment signal that often appears when prices are volatile and confidence is shaken. Despite the current consolidation phase, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive. With institutional participation, ETF-related demand, and long-term supply constraints acting as core catalysts, Bitcoin price prediction models indicate a potential upside.
