As 2026 approaches, analysts are weighing the likelihood of an altcoin season, with some suggesting that "blue-chip survivors" will likely outperform the broader altcoin market. While the crypto community anticipates a potential altcoin season in 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is maintaining its dominance with nearly 60% market share.

Factors Influencing Altcoin Performance

Several factors are currently influencing the potential for an altcoin season. Altcoins are near long-term support levels against Bitcoin, which is similar to pre-rally phases observed in the past. However, many projections suggest a delayed breakout until 2026, indicating that patience is needed. As of late December 2025, the altcoin season index sits at 35, which is well below the level needed for altcoins to outperform Bitcoin. This indicates that capital is still heavily concentrated in Bitcoin.

Contrasting Perspectives

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes offers a different perspective, arguing that altcoin seasons are always happening in certain segments of the market. He suggests that traders may feel they are "missing out" on gains because they are holding the wrong assets and points to rallies from coins like Hyperliquid and Solana as examples. Hayes cautions against expecting past market cycles to repeat exactly, emphasizing that new tokens and narratives drive each cycle's winners.

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal has presented a bullish outlook, arguing that cryptocurrency could be approaching a liquidity-driven supercycle in 2026, fueled by fiscal stimulus, regulatory-driven money creation, banking balance sheet expansion, and a weakening U.S. dollar. He believes that altcoins behave more like small-cap equities, moving in tandem with the business cycle. According to Pal, altseasons begin when the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) index breaks above 50, which signals an increase in risk appetite and a rotation of capital down the crypto risk curve, benefiting smart-contract platforms.

Ethereum's Potential Role

Ethereum (ETH) has historically led altcoin rallies, and this pattern could repeat, especially as institutional activity grows. For example, JPMorgan recently launched an on-chain fund on Ethereum. Additionally, stablecoin volumes have reached record highs, strengthening the case for a potential Ethereum-driven altseason in 2026. Kevin Rusher, founder of RAAC, suggests that institutions and retail investors alike are seeking yield in the DeFi ecosystem of the world's computer, meaning investors can rely on ETH along with other major coins.

Liquidity and Macroeconomic Factors

A growing number of market analysts believe the long-awaited altcoin season may finally arrive in January 2026, with new data suggesting a shift in liquidity conditions. According to Bull Theory, the OTHERS dominance chart, which tracks the market share of altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, is hovering near the same base zone seen ahead of previous explosive cycles. Some analysts believe that altcoins are likely near a long-term bottom versus Bitcoin, and a return to 12-13% market dominance could fuel a solid altcoin cycle. A move toward 18-20% in 2026 could mark the largest altcoin season to date.

Focus on 'Blue-Chip Survivors'

While some analysts anticipate a broad altcoin rally, a more cautious perspective suggests that only the "blue-chip survivors" will truly thrive. This implies that investors may need to be more selective in their altcoin investments, focusing on established projects with strong fundamentals and real-world use cases. Pal suggests focusing primarily on major Layer-1 cryptos like Ethereum and Solana, and analyzing altcoins using real-world metrics such as active users.