Watch the fragile corridor: Bangladesh's fluid political landscape necessitates vigilance in the Chicken’s Neck

The political landscape of Bangladesh is undergoing a period of significant fluidity, demanding increased vigilance, particularly concerning the strategically vital "Chicken's Neck" region. This comes amidst rising tensions and uncertainties surrounding the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Bangladesh's political instability has direct implications for India, especially considering their shared political, economic, and cultural ties, along with a long border. Any upheaval in Bangladesh can create ripple effects on India's security and economic growth.

The upcoming election is a critical juncture, especially after the student-led uprising of 2024 that resulted in former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's exile and the rise of an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. Hasina's ouster, coupled with a death sentence for alleged crimes and a ban on the Awami League's participation, has intensified the political battle. This backdrop of division and unresolved issues creates a volatile mix. While Yunus and the interim government are pushing for elections and reforms, the political climate remains tense, potentially leading to violence as rival factions compete for control.

Adding to the complexity, the opposition in Bangladesh is fractured. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Khaleda Zia, and the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (Jamaat) are preparing for intense electoral competition. Tensions are also rising between the interim government and Hasina's supporters, with her son warning of potential street action if the Awami League is excluded from the electoral process.

The "Chicken's Neck," commonly referring to India's Siliguri Corridor, a narrow strip of land in West Bengal connecting mainland India with its northeastern states, is of particular concern. Recent reports have also identified regions within Bangladesh, such as the Feni region, as potential "Chicken's Neck" areas for that nation.

The Siliguri Corridor's vulnerability stems from its narrow geography, making it susceptible to military incursions and internal disturbances. Its proximity to the Chumbi Valley tri-junction, where India, Bhutan, and China meet, adds another layer of complexity. Recognizing its importance, India has fortified the Siliguri Corridor.

The ongoing political instability in Bangladesh, coupled with the strategic importance of the "Chicken's Neck," necessitates careful observation and proactive measures. Whether the interim government can manage the growing unrest, balance competing political interests, and maintain security will determine if Bangladesh can hold peaceful elections or succumb to further instability. India, in particular, must remain vigilant, considering the potential impact on its own security and regional dynamics.

The current situation has also strained India-Bangladesh relations, marked by protests and security concerns. India has expressed concerns over the treatment of minorities in Bangladesh and the slow progress in bringing perpetrators of violence to justice. Some analysts suggest that India needs a new approach, engaging with all political entities and supporting democracy to restore trust and stability.