From Kabul to Dhaka, 2026 could be a make-or-break year for India’s neighbourhood ties. As India steps into 2026, its relationships with its neighbors are facing a critical juncture, with significant implications for its regional leadership and security. The year is marked by crucial elections in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Myanmar, all of which will require careful navigation by New Delhi to protect its interests and maintain stability in the region.

Afghanistan: A Pragmatic Reset

India's engagement with Afghanistan under the Taliban has seen a pragmatic shift, prioritizing security and economic interests. Despite not formally recognizing the Taliban government, India has maintained a diplomatic presence in Kabul and has focused on providing humanitarian assistance and development support. This approach is driven by concerns about preventing Afghanistan from becoming a breeding ground for terrorism and limiting Pakistan's influence in the region.

Recent high-level visits and the restoration of the Indian embassy in Kabul signal a deepening engagement. India has also committed to infrastructure projects and strengthening trade relations, with Afghanistan maintaining a positive trade balance with India. However, this rapprochement has faced criticism, with concerns raised about legitimizing a regime with a questionable human rights record, particularly regarding women's rights.

Bangladesh: Navigating Political Shifts

The political landscape in Bangladesh is undergoing significant change, posing new challenges for India. The ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024 and the rise of anti-India sentiment have led to a deterioration in bilateral relations. With elections scheduled for February 2026, India faces the task of engaging with a broader range of political stakeholders and addressing concerns about its past support for the Awami League.

Key issues include the renewal of the Farakka water-sharing treaty, which expires in 2026, and addressing cross-border security concerns. India must also counter China's growing influence in Bangladesh and ensure that the country does not become a haven for anti-India insurgents. The rise of Islamist forces and violence against minorities further complicate the situation, requiring a nuanced and proactive approach from New Delhi.

Regional Dynamics and India's Role

The broader regional context presents both challenges and opportunities for India. Pakistan's internal instability and its relationship with Afghanistan, along with the potential for renewed conflict, add to the complexity of the region. India must also contend with China's expanding economic and strategic footprint in South Asia, which undermines India's regional leverage.

Despite these challenges, India is actively pursuing a foreign policy that prioritizes economic resilience, diversified trade, and engagement with various partners. India will host the Artificial Intelligence Summit in February 2026 and holds the BRICS Chairmanship, providing opportunities to shape the global agenda. India's "Neighborhood First" policy seeks to strengthen ties with its neighbors through connectivity, development assistance, and security cooperation.

2026 will be a critical year for India to navigate these complex dynamics and solidify its position as a leading power in the region. By adopting a pragmatic, interest-based approach and fostering inclusive partnerships, India can work towards a stable, secure, and prosperous neighborhood.