India and the United States are actively engaged in discussions regarding a potential trade agreement, according to Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal. Both countries believe that a mutually beneficial deal can be reached. Agrawal's statement on Thursday, January 15, 2026, indicates ongoing conversations between New Delhi and Washington.
Virtual talks between the two countries resumed after the holiday break, signaling a commitment from both sides, though a timeline for in-person negotiations is yet to be determined. These discussions follow a virtual meeting in December between Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal and United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, demonstrating continued high-level engagement on trade issues.
Despite elevated tariff levels, India's exports to the U.S. are showing positive growth, highlighting the resilience of bilateral trade. Agrawal expressed confidence that India's total exports would exceed $850 billion in the current financial year. He noted that India is still maintaining a positive trend in shipments to the U.S., doing around $7 billion despite high tariffs. The focus is on areas with lower tariffs or where the industry has demonstrated resilience in maintaining supply chains.
The proposed agreement aims to more than double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 from the current $191 billion. In February 2025, leaders from both countries directed officials to begin negotiations, initially aiming to complete the first phase by autumn 2025.
The U.S. remained India's largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year in 2024–25, with bilateral trade standing at $131.84 billion, of which $86.5 billion came from Indian exports. The American market accounts for roughly 18% of India's total goods exports, 6.22% of its imports, and 10.73% of overall merchandise trade.
Earlier in January, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that a trade deal was delayed because Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not call then-President Donald Trump, a claim that India has refuted. According to Lutnick, the U.S. had placed an initial trade offer before India and expected the agreement to be concluded within a defined period. He said that the U.S. wanted Modi to call Trump to finalize the deal, but Modi did not.
However, India's foreign ministry countered that this characterization of the discussions was inaccurate. They stated that the two nations have been close to a deal on several occasions since the agreement to negotiate in February of last year, and that Prime Minister Modi and President Trump spoke on the phone eight times during 2025.
Despite these past differences and challenges, both countries remain committed to pursuing a mutually beneficial trade agreement. Washington's new envoy to New Delhi, Sergio Gor, has also signaled renewed diplomatic momentum, stating his commitment to strengthening the partnership between the two democracies in areas like defense, trade, technology, and critical minerals. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio have also discussed trade, critical minerals, nuclear energy, and defense cooperation.
