Azerbaijan is increasingly being viewed as a strategic third arm in the evolving nexus between Pakistan and Turkey, raising concerns in India. This trilateral relationship has been strengthening over the years, driven by shared interests, historical ties, and a common Islamic heritage.
Historical and Political Context
The relationship between Turkey and Pakistan has deep roots, predating Pakistan's independence in 1947. Both countries were among the first to recognize Azerbaijan's independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. This early support laid the foundation for a strong trilateral alliance. Underscoring the closeness between Ankara and Baku is the common saying, "one nation, two states".
Strategic Alignment
The "three brothers" share similar positions on several key geopolitical issues. All three countries support each other on matters of national interest. Pakistan and Turkey have consistently backed Azerbaijan's position on Nagorno-Karabakh, with Pakistan being the only country that does not recognize Armenia's independence due to this conflict. Similarly, Azerbaijan and Pakistan have supported Turkey's stance on the Cyprus issue. The three nations have also voiced concerns about India's actions in Jammu and Kashmir. This alignment on critical issues has solidified their strategic partnership.
Military Cooperation
Defense cooperation is a significant aspect of the Azerbaijan-Pakistan-Turkey nexus. Joint military exercises, such as the "Three Brothers" drill held in Baku in 2021, have become more frequent. Turkey has also been instrumental in modernizing Pakistan's naval capabilities. Pakistan has acquired Turkish-made drones, including the Bayraktar TB2, and Asisguard SONGAR. This military cooperation enhances the defense capabilities of all three nations and strengthens their collective security.
Economic Ties
Economic cooperation is also on the rise within this trilateral framework. While trade volumes between Pakistan and Azerbaijan have been relatively small, there are efforts to increase economic cooperation through joint chambers of commerce and potential free trade agreements. Azerbaijan's energy exports are of interest to both Turkey and Pakistan, while Azerbaijan benefits from Turkish military technology. Despite a recent decline amid geopolitical tensions, bilateral trade between India and Turkey reached $10.4 billion in fiscal year 2023-24, with Indian exports exceeding imports.
India's Concerns and Responses
India views the growing Azerbaijan-Pakistan-Turkey nexus with concern, particularly due to their combined diplomatic influence and military cooperation. The alliance's backing of Pakistan on the Kashmir issue and Turkey's increasing role as an arms supplier to Pakistan are key sources of worry for New Delhi.
In response, India has taken several steps to counter this emerging alliance. India has strengthened its relationships with Armenia and Greece, countries that have their own issues with Azerbaijan and Turkey, respectively. India has also emerged as a major arms supplier to Armenia, providing anti-drone technology and defense systems. Furthermore, India is actively promoting connectivity projects like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Persian Gulf-Black Sea Corridor to bypass neighboring countries and enhance its strategic reach in the region.
The Way Forward
The evolving dynamics of the Azerbaijan-Pakistan-Turkey nexus present both challenges and opportunities for India. While the alliance poses a potential threat to India's regional interests, it also encourages New Delhi to strengthen its strategic partnerships and focus on economic and connectivity initiatives to counter its influence.
Despite strained political relations due to Turkey's support for Pakistan's stance on Kashmir, India maintains pragmatic ties with Azerbaijan, focusing on energy and commercial partnerships. India recognized Azerbaijan's independence in 1991 and established diplomatic relations in 1992. In 2024, bilateral trade reached $958 million, with India importing crude oil and exporting goods like rice and smartphones. Moreover, cultural ties and tourism have been on the rise, with India becoming a significant source of tourists for Azerbaijan.
Ultimately, India's approach to the Azerbaijan-Pakistan-Turkey nexus requires a multifaceted strategy that combines diplomatic engagement, strategic alliances, and economic initiatives to protect its interests and promote regional stability.
