The Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves at a crucial juncture as the 2025-26 NHL season progresses, with the March 6 trade deadline looming large. Recent struggles have cast a shadow over their playoff aspirations, prompting serious questions about the team's direction. With the team currently outside the playoff picture, General Manager Brad Treliving faces a difficult decision: push for a playoff spot or initiate a rebuild.
The Case for a Playoff Push
Despite their recent slump, the Maple Leafs possess a core of talented players, including Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and John Tavares. These players are capable of leading the team on a deep playoff run. Coach Craig Berube, brought in to provide a new voice and structure, has the team battling and buying into his system. Goaltending has been a strength, particularly the play of Joseph Woll and Dennis Hildeby. The Eastern Conference is perceived as weaker this year, suggesting that even a lower-seeded Leafs team could have a decent chance in the first round against most opponents. Moreover, the Leafs have a top-10 record in the league since December 23, indicating underlying potential. Not giving up on Auston Matthews and William Nylander, who are in their prime, is a significant consideration for the team.
To bolster their chances, the Maple Leafs could look to add reinforcements via trade. Connor Murphy and Tyler Bertuzzi have been mentioned as potential targets to shore up the defense and solidify the top-six. However, the Leafs' lack of assets could make acquiring impactful players challenging.
The Case for a Rebuild
The Maple Leafs' prospect pool is considered weak, and they have limited draft capital in the upcoming years. They only have a 3rd, 5th, and 6th round pick in the 2026 draft. The Leafs also don't have their first-round pick in 2027. A rebuild would allow the team to accumulate draft picks and develop young players, setting the stage for sustained success in the future. The team has several pending free agents, such as Bobby McMann, Scott Laughton and Calle Jarnkrok, who could be traded for valuable assets. Some analysts suggest only Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares and Matthew Knies are untouchable, and even that isn't guaranteed. Trading Auston Matthews could bring a massive return, potentially including multiple first-round picks and promising prospects.
However, committing to a rebuild would mean parting ways with established stars and enduring several years of potentially uncompetitive hockey. Rebuilds can take longer than expected, and there's no guarantee of future success. The Leafs have already traded away valuable draft picks in recent years, which would hinder their ability to rebuild effectively.
Potential Trade Candidates
Several Maple Leafs players could be on the move if the team opts to sell. Pending free agents like Bobby McMann, Scott Laughton, Calle Jarnkrok, and Troy Stecher are likely candidates. Other players who could be considered include Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Simon Benoit, Brandon Carlo, Nick Robertson, and Matias Maccelli. Teams that could be interested in acquiring Leafs' players include the Seattle Kraken, Calgary Flames, and Edmonton Oilers.
The Salary Cap Situation
The Maple Leafs' salary cap situation adds another layer of complexity to their decision-making. The team has limited cap space, which could restrict their ability to add players at the trade deadline. However, with the salary cap expected to increase significantly in the coming years, the Leafs could have more financial flexibility in the future. The cap is expected to be $95.5 million in 2025-26. According to Puckpedia.com, the Leafs now have $28,753,565 of free cap space in 2025-26, and that's followed by $46,403,565 and $61,320,231 in 2026-27, and 27-28, respectively.
Ultimately, the Maple Leafs' decision will depend on their assessment of their current team and their long-term goals. A playoff push would signal a belief in the current core, while a rebuild would represent a shift towards building for the future. Either path carries risks and rewards, and the outcome will shape the direction of the franchise for years to come.
