India's economic growth is projected to be between 6.8% and 7.2% in FY27, according to the Economic Survey 2026, which was tabled in Parliament today by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. This projection reflects the government's assessment of the economy and is presented before the Union Budget. The survey suggests that the Indian economy remains on a stable footing, supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals and a series of regulatory reforms.

Key Takeaways:

1. GDP Growth Projection: The Economic Survey 2026 projects India's real GDP growth at 6.8% to 7.2% for FY27. This is slightly lower than the 7.4% growth projected for the current fiscal year, FY26.
2. Growth Drivers: The projected growth is expected to be driven by strong domestic demand, resilient consumption, and improving private investment. The cumulative impact of policy reforms is also expected to lift the economy's medium-term growth potential closer to 7%.
3. Global Context: The survey acknowledges the global economic uncertainty and highlights potential risks such as slower growth in key global markets and trade disruptions. It emphasizes that India's external performance demonstrates resilience to global shocks.
4. Inflation Outlook: The Economic Survey anticipates that inflation will remain largely stable. The RBI and IMF project a progressive increase in headline inflation, bringing levels within the targeted range of 4% (± 2%). The RBI's forecast for headline inflation for Q1 and Q2 of FY27 currently stands at 3.9% and 4% respectively.
5. Export Performance: India's total exports (merchandise and services) reached a record $825.3 billion in FY25, with continued momentum in FY26. Despite heightened tariffs imposed by the United States, merchandise exports grew by 2.4% (April–December 2025), while services exports increased by 6.5%.
6. Reforms and Policy Measures: The survey emphasized the importance of reforms in areas such as building, land, labor, logistics, and utilities. These reforms are expected to enhance economic efficiency and support long-term growth.
7. Global Risks: The Economic Survey 2026 has warned that risks to global economic growth remain significant. It cautioned that if the artificial intelligence boom fails to deliver expected productivity gains, it could lead to a correction in high asset valuations and trigger wider financial stress.
8. IMF Projections: The IMF has increased its growth estimate for India to 7.3% for 2025-26, raising it by 0.7 percentage points from its October forecast, citing stronger-than-expected economic performance. The IMF has also revised India's GDP growth outlook for 2026-27 to 6.4%, up from its earlier estimate of 6.2%.
9. Economic Stability: The Economic Survey highlights that the Indian economy remains stable, with healthier balance sheets across households, firms, and banks. Public investment continues to support economic activity.
10. Long-Term Projections: India is expected to become the world's fourth-largest economy. By 2030, India's projected GDP will be USD 7.3 trillion, potentially displacing Germany from the third rank.

The Economic Survey serves as the government's annual report card on the economy, outlining India's near- and long-term growth outlook while flagging key challenges and areas of focus. It provides the economic context for the upcoming Union Budget, which will be presented on February 1.