The Economic Survey 2026, presented today, indicates a favorable inflation outlook for the country, with projections remaining within the targeted ranges. A significant factor contributing to this positive trend is the considerable easing of inflationary pressures due to a drop in food prices.
The survey highlights that strong agricultural output has played a crucial role in keeping food inflation in check. Normal monsoon patterns and improved farm prospects have helped mitigate food inflation risks. Additionally, stable global commodity prices have contributed to the favorable inflation outlook. Improvements in supply chains, logistics efficiency, and productive capacity across sectors have also helped to keep core inflation subdued. Furthermore, infrastructure expansion, including airports, freight corridors, and inland waterways, has eased supply bottlenecks and reduced cost pressures.
While the overall outlook is positive, the Economic Survey 2026 also acknowledges potential risks that warrant ongoing monitoring. These include currency fluctuations, surges in base metal prices, and persistent global uncertainties. The survey emphasizes the need for continued policy vigilance and adaptive policy responses to address these potential challenges.
The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, remained largely unchanged from November 2025 to December 2025, but was up 2.7 percent from December 2024. Food prices rose faster than overall inflation. The CPI for all food increased 0.6 percent from November 2025 to December 2025 and was 3.1 percent higher than in December 2024. The level of food price inflation varied depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption at home or away from home: The food-away-from-home CPI increased 0.7 percent from November 2025 to December 2025 and was 4.1 percent higher than in December 2024. The food-at-home CPI increased 0.5 percent from November 2025 to December 2025 and was 2.4 percent higher than in December 2024.
For 2026, overall food prices are predicted to increase 3.0 percent. This indicates a continued moderation in food price inflation compared to previous years.
The Economic Survey 2026 highlights the increasing impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on global services trade, especially digitally deliverable services. AI innovations reduce trade costs and increase productivity, while increased cross-border services trade accelerates technological diffusion. The WTO estimates that AI could raise global trade by 34-37% by 2040, with digitally deliverable services expanding by about 42% due to lower trade costs and higher productivity.
The survey also addresses the need for policy to adapt to the expanding gig economy, with a focus on competition, worker protections, and minimum earnings. Digital platforms have become critical labor-market infrastructure but have disproportionate control over workers' incomes and conditions. The survey suggests addressing this through competition rules, data access, and algorithmic transparency, while reorganizing the social contract to benefit gig workers more fairly.
