Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of a potential rebound, with traders eyeing a possible move toward $85,000. This optimism follows a recent recovery from a nine-month low, sparking speculation about renewed upward momentum.
Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment
Bitcoin's price rose to $78,000 on Monday, a 5.5% increase from its recent low of $74,500. Technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin may be approaching key price levels, with fair value gaps (FVGs) identified between $79,000 and $81,000, and further up between $84,000 and $88,000. These FVGs represent areas where price moved rapidly, leaving potential points of interest for traders. Exchange order-book data indicates that Bitcoin is currently facing resistance below sell-order clusters at $80,000 and $85,000. Overcoming the $80,000 barrier could trigger a short squeeze, potentially propelling BTC towards the $85,000 target.
However, resistance may be met around $85,000, as substantial spot volume was transacted between $85,000 and $95,000 in Q4 2025, leaving many holders seeking to exit near their breakeven point. Analyst Sherlock noted that $85,000 as initial resistance.
Factors Driving Potential Rebound
A key factor supporting a potential rebound is the return of inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs. On Monday, the first inflow of the month reached $561.9 million, ending a four-day outflow streak. This inflow suggests renewed institutional demand at lower prices, indicating that institutions may be "buying the fear". The return of inflows signals stabilizing demand. Bitcoin's recent bounce occurred after fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) levels reached their highest since November 2025, a pattern that has historically preceded relief rallies.
Potential Obstacles and Alternative Perspectives
Despite the positive signs, Bitcoin remains below the average ETF creation cost basis of $84,000, a level that has acted as both support and resistance. A drop below $80,000 could trigger cascading liquidations, potentially accelerating a price decline.
Analysts at Finbold's AI-driven price prediction tool predict a BTC price of $76,667 for February 28, 2026, a slight decrease from its current price. However, it's important to note the AI models remain sharply divided on Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. Claude Sonnet projected a potential 7.44% rally and a $82,500 price target, while Gemini and ChatGPT suggested potential drops to $72,500 or $75,000, respectively.
Longer-Term Outlook
Looking beyond the immediate short-term, Bitcoin's historical performance reveals a pattern of significant price swings. From 2015 to 2017, Bitcoin surged to $19,600 before losing 83% of its value. After a period of range-bound prices, Bitcoin rallied post-pandemic, reaching $68,900 in November 2021. A subsequent crash to $16,000 in November 2022 was followed by a strong recovery, with Bitcoin reaching $108,353 in November 2024. In 2025, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,272 on October 5.
Analysts predict Bitcoin may fluctuate between $94,071.12 and $133,035.32 in March 2026. Forecast data for April 2026 places Bitcoin's expected minimum value near $96,019.84 and the maximum at approximately $134,984.05.
Overall, while a rebound towards $85,000 is possible, various factors could influence Bitcoin's price trajectory. Technical indicators, market sentiment, ETF inflows, and broader macroeconomic conditions will likely play a crucial role in determining Bitcoin's next move.