Despite Bitcoin's recent 14% rebound, many top traders are hesitant to turn bullish, exhibiting an "ultra-skeptical stance" due to uncertainty following a 52% retreat from its all-time high of $126,220 in October 2025. This reluctance stems from several factors, including a decline in bullish leverage demand and persistent concerns about further price declines.
One key indicator of this bearish sentiment is the Bitcoin long-to-short ratio at Binance, which recently hit a 30-day low, signaling a sharp decrease in demand for bullish leverage. This ratio dropped from 1.93 to 1.20, indicating that even with Bitcoin reaching 15-month lows, traders are not rushing to take on leveraged long positions. Similarly, the long-to-short ratio for top traders at OKX experienced a sharp reversal, falling from a peak of 4.3 to 1.7. This shift aligns with a $1 billion liquidation event in leveraged Bitcoin futures, where traders were forced to close positions due to insufficient margin.
Adding to the cautious outlook is the behavior of larger Bitcoin holders. Data suggests that these "whales" have been distributing their holdings during the rebound, applying downward pressure on the price. This pattern needs to reverse before significant upward movement can occur.
Furthermore, the Bitcoin derivatives market is sending warning signals, with traders remaining defensively positioned and a lack of new bullish bets. The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains negative, a bearish indicator suggesting that traders are still preparing for downside risk or are only willing to hold long positions if they receive compensation. Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures has also failed to recover since October, highlighting a lack of confidence in the rebound.
Liquidity conditions are also contributing to market anxiety. Thin order books can lead to significant price swings even with modest selling pressure, triggering stop-losses and liquidations, creating a feedback loop that amplifies market volatility. This structural factor helps explain Bitcoin's volatile price action, where it can fluctuate by thousands of dollars within a single trading day without breaking through key resistance levels.
Adding to the uncertainty, Bitcoin's rebound has been challenged by a resurgence in gold prices, which have climbed above $5,000 an ounce. Some analysts believe that this shift in focus towards traditional assets like gold could hinder any further crypto recovery.
Despite the skepticism, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. One analyst stated that the "bearish case for Bitcoin is the weakest it's ever been in its history," expecting Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high with a year-end target price of $150,000.
Overall, while Bitcoin has shown some recovery, top traders are not yet convinced that a sustained bullish trend has begun. Concerns about market structure, whale activity, and broader economic factors are contributing to a cautious approach, with many traders waiting for more concrete signs of stability before fully embracing a bullish outlook.