The relationship between former allies Donald Trump and Narendra Modi appears to be facing headwinds, raising questions about the future of their personal rapport and, consequently, the strategic alliance between the United States and India. With the upcoming Quad summit in India, the potential for a reset in their relationship is emerging as a key point of discussion.

Once considered close allies, Trump and Modi have seen their relationship cool, reportedly due to trade tensions and diplomatic disagreements. Trump's decision to potentially skip the Quad summit in India is a visible signal of this internal rift. This shift comes despite Modi's invitation to Trump after the G7 summit. Some analysts suggest that Modi's recent appearance with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Tianjin served as a warning to the Trump Administration against what India perceives as bullying tactics.

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which includes the United States, India, Japan, and Australia, was initially revived by Trump in 2017 to counter China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. However, Trump's "America First" approach and unpredictable foreign policy have introduced strains within the grouping. His combative economic stance, unilateral trade measures, and arm-twisting tactics have created tensions with allies, including India.

The Quad's foundation lies in the idea of a "free and open Indo-Pacific," contrasting with a region dominated by Chinese power. However, with Trump's domestic agenda at odds with the Quad's directions on public health, open trade, and democratic freedoms, cooperation is dwindling.

Several factors indicate a potential shift in India's foreign policy. Modi attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin, alongside Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. This visual demonstration of camaraderie raised eyebrows in Washington. Concerns have arisen that India is drifting away from the U.S. and aligning more closely with China. Furthermore, India's continued purchase of Russian oil, despite U.S. pressure, has added to the friction.

Despite these challenges, some analysts believe that the U.S. is unlikely to abandon the Quad altogether, recognizing its potential in counterbalancing China's influence. The Quad brings together nations representing over 2 billion people and one-third of the global GDP. However, U.S. engagement may fall short of the intensity seen under previous administrations.

To safeguard the Quad from the impact of individual leaders' whims, some experts suggest greater institutionalization of the group. This could lead to more effective policy coordination and tangible outcomes. The question remains whether the Quad can adapt to shifting U.S. policies while reinforcing its commitment to regional security and balancing China's rise.

While the personal chemistry between Trump and Modi may have cooled, the strategic importance of the U.S.-India relationship and the Quad remains significant. The upcoming Quad summit in India could serve as a crucial opportunity to address the existing tensions, reaffirm shared goals, and potentially reset the relationship between the two leaders. Whether Trump and Modi can rekindle their friendship and reinvigorate the Quad remains to be seen, but the stakes are high for regional security and stability.