In 2024, India's share of H-1B visas approved by the United States dipped to 68.6%, marking the lowest point in a decade. This figure represents a notable shift in trends, as Indian nationals have historically been the largest recipients of these visas. Despite this decline, Indians still constituted a significant majority, accounting for 283,397 out of the 399,395 total H-1B visas approved in the fiscal year 2024.

H-1B Visa Trends and Approvals

The H-1B visa program allows US employers to temporarily employ foreign workers in specialized occupations that require theoretical or technical expertise. These occupations generally necessitate a bachelor's degree or its equivalent. The US approves a limited number of H-1B visas each year, leading to a competitive application process. In fiscal year 2024, nearly 400,000 H-1B applications were approved, with the majority being renewals for continued employment. Approvals peaked in 2022, reaching 442,425. While the overall number of approved H-1B petitions increased slightly in 2024, the proportion going to Indian workers has decreased.

Factors Contributing to the Decline

Several factors have contributed to the decrease in India's share of H-1B visas. These include:

• Increased Local Hiring: Indian IT companies are increasingly focusing on hiring local talent in the US, reducing their reliance on H-1B visas. This shift is partly driven by the higher cost of living in the US and growing opportunities for IT professionals within India.
• Shift to Digital Services: Indian companies are adopting digital services like cloud computing, bots, and artificial intelligence, which require fewer workers.
• Tighter Immigration Policies: Stricter immigration policies and higher denial rates during the Trump administration have also played a role.
• Rising Visa Costs: Increased application fees, with the base registration fee jumping from $10 to $215, have made companies more cautious in filing.
• Economic Slowdown and Layoffs: A sluggish US economy and layoffs in major tech firms have further contributed to the decline in H-1B applications.

Impact on Indian IT Companies

The reduced reliance on H-1B visas has had a noticeable impact on Indian IT companies. The number of approved H-1B petitions for initial employment from the top seven Indian companies dropped from 15,166 in fiscal year 2015 to 6,732 in 2023. Tata Consultancy Services, which had the highest approvals in FY15, experienced a 75% decline over the eight-year period. Other major companies like Infosys, Wipro, and HCL America have also seen significant declines in approvals.

Broader Implications and the "Brain Gain" Opportunity

The changing H-1B landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for India. While the decline in visa issuances may affect Indian professionals seeking opportunities in the US, it could also lead to a "brain gain" for India. By fostering a supportive ecosystem and improving domestic opportunities, India can retain more of its skilled talent and attract professionals back to the country.

The US Perspective

The H-1B visa program remains a subject of debate in the US. Some argue that it helps fill critical labor shortages and strengthens the US economy, while others express concerns about its impact on American workers. Recent policy changes, such as the proposed $100,000 fee for new H-1B visas, reflect ongoing efforts to reform the program and prioritize higher-skilled, higher-paid workers.